Crypto heads into the new week with its Friday rally on shakier ground.
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil lower and pushed risk assets higher, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The opening reversed on Saturday, with Iran firing on ships trying to pass and the United States seizing an Iranian-flagged tanker on Sunday.
With the ceasefire set to expire mid-week, traders will be watching to see if the risk-on rotation can survive another energy shock.
The technical level to watch is clear. Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, told CoinDesk that tracking depends on Bitcoin maintaining its ETF’s cost base near $74,000.
“With the reopening of Hormuz, oil is down and stocks have been pulled back to the ATHs, taking crypto higher with it,” Nolan said. “Follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above its ETF’s cost base (~$74,000), which would confirm the risk rotation already visible in flows. ETF flows have turned positive over the past three sessions, and an acceleration in this pace would be favorable for a move higher.”
A decisive hold above $74,000 before the ceasefire deadline, coupled with a fourth straight session of positive ETF inflows, would validate the rotation thesis. A break below would bring volatility back into the sector.
What to watch
(All times ET)
- Cryptocurrency
- April 30: Comment period closes on CFTC’s advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets.
- Macro
- April 20, 7:30 a.m.: Canadian Consumer Price Index year-on-year for March (previous 1.8%); Base rate (previous 2.3%)
- April 21, 1:30 p.m.: Address by Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC
- April 22, 1:00 a.m.: UK consumer price inflation year-on-year for March (previously 3.0%); Base rate (previous 3.2%)
- April 22, 7:30 p.m.: Flash PMI S&P Global Services from Japan for April (previous 53); Manufacturing PMI index (previous 51.6)
- April 23, 7:30 a.m.: Canadian producer price index over one year for March (previous 5.4%); MoM (previous 0.4%)
- April 23 at 7:30 a.m.: First jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 18 (prev. 207,000)
- April 23, 8:45 a.m.: S&P Global Flash US manufacturing PMI for April (previous 52.3); Services PMI (previous 49.8)
- April 23, 3:30 p.m.: Balance sheet of the American Fed for the period ending April 22 (previous $6.71 T)
- April 23, 6:30 p.m.: Consumer price index in Japan year-on-year for March (previously 1.3%); Core CPI (previous 1.6%)
- April 24, 3:00 a.m.: Ifo business climate in Germany for April (prev. 86.4)
- April 24, 9 a.m.: Final Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment for April est. 47.6 (previous 53.3)
- Earnings (estimates based on FactSet data where available)
- April 22: Tesla (TSLA), pre-market, $0.3
- April 22: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $3.29
- April 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market, $0.93
Token Events
- Votes and calls on governance
- SafeDAO votes to allocate 5 million SAFE tokens to fund a six-month staking rewards program and the development of an interface for Safenet Beta. Voting closes on April 20.
- Unlock DAO votes on a payment plan to compensate members for their contributions to the collaboration platform in March and April. Voting closes on April 20.
- RootstockCollective DAO votes on a $20,000 USDRIF grant to fund a security audit for TYKORA Prize Vaults, a no-loss savings protocol. Voting closes on April 20.
- ENS DAO votes to update its DNSSEC implementation by redirecting Algorithm 7 to a previously fixed contract, adding appropriate padding validation to correct an omission in an earlier security update. Voting closes on April 21.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to overhaul its transparency infrastructure by establishing named ownership for all recordkeeping systems, publishing strict maintenance standards, and creating a single accessible portal for the community to locate data. Voting closes on April 22.
- Telcoin Platform Council DAO votes to allocate 50 million TEL to hire strategic telecommunications advisor to drive GSMA adoption. Voting closes on April 22.
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to appoint nine multi-signature signatories for 2026-2027, maintain a security threshold of 5 out of 9, set their quarterly remuneration at $1,000 in GHST and establish a succession plan. Voting closes on April 22.
- Lightchain AI DAO votes to explore adding an optional Moonpay on-ramp to its AI chat, focusing on feasibility and risks without committing funds or approving implementation at this time. Voting closes on April 23.
- Gitcoin DAO votes to reclaim remaining unclaimed fees from the abandoned Public Goods Network (PGN). Voting closes on April 24.
- Parallel DAO is voting to begin winding down its V2 EUR stablecoin by stopping most new issuance and imposing a punitive 50% borrowing rate to encourage users to repay existing debt. Voting closes on April 24.
- Unlocks
- April 20: LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.35% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
- April 22: Undeads Games (UDS) will release 13.47% of its circulating supply worth $37.09 million.
- April 23: Toncoin (TON) will unlock 1.47% of its circulating supply worth $49.75 million.
- April 25: Humanity Protocol (H) will release 4.02% of its circulating supply worth approximately $11.88 million.
- April 25: Avalanche (AVAX) will release 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $15.6 million.
- April 26: Plasma (XPL) will unlock 3.73% of its circulating supply worth $10.10 million.
- Token Launches
- April 21: OpenGradient Token Generation (OPG) event occurs.
- April 21: USDAI CHIP token launched.
- April 22: Wingbits (WINGS) token generation event occurs.
