Cubs vs. Blue Jays betting picks and player Michael Conforto prop analysis

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I’m glad we didn’t take the running line yesterday at the baseball game. We had the under-8s for the White Sox-Tigers game, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers got the win, but as I mentioned, there was no reason for Detroit to be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today we move on to National League team Chicago as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays are a team that I have probably written about more than most teams in the league. This isn’t a complaint or anything, I just happen to see a lot of value in their games. This is largely due to the fact that when they are favored, they are not heavy favorites given their 37-39 record and the rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When it comes to dogs, they are usually quite small puppies, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite doesn’t come with too high a price tag.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Photos by Ali Overstreet/MLB via Getty Images)

The Jays were attacked by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted pitcher is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He had a good year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did when he was with the Nationals. Corbin is a bit more reliable on the road, considering he’s pitched 10 more innings and allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much of late, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, hitting .316 against him.

The Cubs are one of the most frustrating teams to watch this season. Maybe this is me saying this as a fan of the team, but they had two 10-game winning streaks, as well as a 10-game losing streak. Since May 9, the team is 13-24. Of course, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff – they only have two healthy starters since the start of the year. But the bulk of that has to be placed on the club’s striking. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is .228 and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.

Ernie Clement of the Toronto Blue Jays hits a three-run home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

Still, the Cubs brought out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some kicks going, maybe they’ll be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who hasn’t been very good this month. He made three starts, allowed 19 hits and 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched. However, he has been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen him much, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.

There’s a clear player prop to play with in this one. However, the bad news is that it is not on the options list, so you may have to request it or find it in a book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five home runs. I would play him over 2 total bases and a home run as long as you can get +200 or better for bases and +700 for the home run prop.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after being hit by a pitch during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)

If you can’t find him, or if they never release him (but I have to imagine they’ll give options once he’s added to the roster, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have one more play to make. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the freshest bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.

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