Major League Baseball’s hitters over 35 face biggest drop in production in decades

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Nolan Arenado was fighting his way through the month of May when the Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman woke up one morning with an illness familiar to those who felt invincible in their 20s but have reached their mid-to-late 30s.

His back hurt.

Not bad. Not enough to keep him out of the lineup. But it was one of those inexplicable moments that come with being an aging Major League Baseball player — threatening to derail a hot streak for an eight-time All-Star who just turned 35.

“There’s more pain,” Arenado said. “There’s just a little more work in the gym, getting ready for the game, than before. It’s a learning curve.

“I’ve always been in the gym, I’ve always done that kind of thing, but there’s definitely more maintenance.”

Arenado overcame a minor back issue and continues a bounce-back season in the desert, batting .256 with eight homers and 30 RBIs in Monday’s games. He’s part of a group of 35-and-overs getting strong results at the plate, joining Los Angeles Dodgers veterans Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, as well as Houston’s Christian Walker.

But it’s a small club that has shrunk over the past decade.

MLB hitters aged 35 or older combined to provide just 5.6 WAR (wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs) through about the first third of the season, continuing a trend that has accelerated over the past decade.

In the early 2000s, older stars were the norm in the big leagues. It peaked in 2003 when older hitters combined for 71.3 WAR, with a group highlighted by Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Kenny Lofton, Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Bagwell.

So what has changed?

Let’s look at some of the reasons why MLB is younger these days:

Analyzes like young players

Baseball’s analytics era dates back to the work of Bill James in the 1970s and 1980s, but terms like WAR, wOBA, BABIP, and OPS+ didn’t begin to become more common in the major leagues until at least the late 2000s.

Suddenly, the eye test wasn’t enough for MLB general managers. Cold, hard numbers were available.

And – overwhelmingly – these numbers showed that the best years for a big league hitter are typically between the mid-20s and early 30s.

This is directly related to MLB teams locking young players into long-term contracts. Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle, Pittsburgh’s Konnor Griffin, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez are among dozens of promising players who signed lucrative deals well before hitting free agency.

Spending on veterans is out of fashion. Walker — a three-time Gold Glove first baseman who hit nearly 200 career home runs — signed with the Astros for a relatively modest, three-year, $60 million contract after the 2024 season, when he was 33 years old.

“I think it has a lot to do with being able to gauge the value of guys on the field,” Walker said. “For a long time, WAR didn’t exist, wRC+ wasn’t a stat, right? So you’ve lost perspective or this guy is a good clubhouse guy or he has experience, he’s been to a World Series.”

Velocity exploded during their career

Today’s young stars came of age in a game where speed is king, but that wasn’t the case when Freeman and others broke through. The average MLB fastball in 2026 is north of 94 mph, with 18 skilled pitchers averaging at least 96. When Freeman debuted 17 years ago, the league average was below 92 and no skilled pitcher averaged at least 96.

Arenado said one of the first things that becomes more difficult for MLB veterans is the ability to handle really good fastballs, especially inside. This makes for tough matchups against pitchers like Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski, who regularly throws 100 mph.

“I feel like the general age of levels and development is getting younger and younger,” Walker said. “And maybe there’s something to that – like your best balls might be at 27.”

Big league teams also value flexibility more

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has Freeman and Muncy in his lineup almost daily. He also played in the big leagues until the age of 36, before retiring in 2008, giving him first-hand experience of the aging process.

“The hardest part is waiting and wanting the same outcome you’ve always had, but not wanting to change the equation,” Roberts said.

Roberts said the process is different for each player. Some need to practice more. A little less. Others need more sleep. Diet becomes more important. The tricky part is that the habits that got you into the big leagues may not be the same ones that will keep you there into your mid-to-late 30s.

Walker, who didn’t become a starter in the big leagues until he was 28, said he’s come to terms with getting older and enjoys analyzing his blood tests that might signal the cause of vitamin deficiencies or inflammation. The tests also show how the amount of alcohol can affect one’s body or the importance of a good night’s sleep.

“For me, there’s no real magic bullet, just chalk it up to late flowering,” Walker said. “My age is older than most guys, but the service time isn’t. I haven’t played in the big leagues in 20 years or something. Good thing I can still help the team.”

Arenado welcomes change

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said he believes there are two main reasons why Arenado is still having success in his 14th season in the big leagues. First, he paid tribute to the D-backs’ hitting coaches.

But perhaps more importantly, Arenado listened to those coaches, embraced change and found new ways to succeed.

“There’s an adjustment in work habits and mindset once you get to that level where things aren’t as easy as they used to be,” Lovullo said. “Some people say: ‘I’ve had my career, it’s not as easy as it used to be and I want to end it.'”

He later added: “It’s fun to see Nolan Arenado have so much success, but he’s worked his ass off. He works as hard as any 22- or 23-year-old we have on this team.”

Associated Press reporting.

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