“Overall, this indicates a stabilizing but still fragile ETF demand environment, where investors are no longer accelerating exits but gradually repositioning capital, providing a potential floor to the downside,” the firm said.
The other notable dynamic is the decoupling between the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate expectations, and WTI crude oil futures. As oil prices have collapsed, the two-year yield has strengthened, hovering at 4.21% at the time of writing, the highest since February 2025. (See the daily signal.)
The decoupling indicates that oil and geopolitical headwinds for risk assets have been replaced by expectations of Fed rate hikes. Markets may expect the knock-on effects of March’s oil price surge to keep inflation high in the near term, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate increase.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is expected to confirm the trend. According to FactSet, it is expected to have increased 0.37% for the month, bringing the 12-month rate to 3.4%, which would be the highest since May 2024.
Overall, the slower but still losing ETFs and hawkish hints from bond yields suggest lower chances of a convincing BTC price recovery in the near term.
And there’s also what Strategy, the largest publicly traded holder of BTC, is doing to address concerns about the price volatility of its STRC preferred shares. Stay vigilant!
