Cryptoquant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, which could signal that “market structure is starting to recover,” Julio Moreno, the company’s on-chain market analyst, said Wednesday.
“Historically, this has been an important signal for regime change,” Moreno wrote. “When the indicator leaves the bearish territory and enters the first bullish zone, this often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and the market structure is beginning to recover.”
For Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, the CryptoQuant bull-bear market cycle indicator is a regime change indicator, not a crystal ball. He said that “historically, this has been very useful in identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset.”
Greenspan said real confirmation would come later, with sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels. “So now all eyes are on price developments to confirm validation,” he added.
He recalled that when this indicator turned green in 2019 and then again at the beginning of 2023 after intense bearish phases, the market moved to “stronger uptrends”. Moreno, however, acknowledged that March 2022 remains a crucial exception. At the time, the indicator had turned bullish but gave a false positive, preceding a move into a deeper downtrend.
The analyst also highlighted why the current May 2026 is so crucial. “On the one hand, the indicator shows the first constructive regime change in years,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear market asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average suggests improving momentum beneath the surface.”
Currently, Bitcoin finds itself in a tug of war similar to that of 2022. As on-chain metrics recover, the asset is struggling to decisively topple the $82,000 resistance level, a ceiling that has remained firm despite multiple breakout attempts this month following a 35% rebound from February’s low of $60,000.
To confirm this bullish signal, Bitcoin must overcome the “exhaustion” currently visible in secondary metrics, Moreno suggested. Unlike net early-cycle inflows of the past, this move comes against a neutral index of fear and greed and a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
Although Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, did not mention CryptoQuant’s indicator, he echoed the sentiment that the cycle had changed, stating that he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed at $60,000 earlier this year. Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, indicated that $90,000 would be the level at which the rally would become explosive and head towards its previous high of $126,000.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, concluded that while these metrics are useful, they are often misunderstood. “Metrics such as MVRV (market capitalization relative to realized capitalization) or NUPL (net unrealized profit and loss) were never intended to be accurate trading signals,” he said. “They are best thought of as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits in a broader liquidity cycle.”
