Small-market MLB teams outperform big payrolls, undermining pressure from owners to cancel 2027 season

We’re almost a month into the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, and there have already been major surprises, stellar performances and, most importantly, the complete and utter dismantling of the “poor” small market owner trope.

And I hope it adds positive momentum to the ridiculous push from these owners and their supportive fans to cancel the 2027 season in order to increase the value of the franchise.

During the first weeks of the season, we saw several high-profile contract extensions for young, small-market prospects, including one that set a record for the largest monetary guarantee ever given to a player who had yet to play in the big leagues.

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Then the San Diego Padres, playing in one of the league’s smallest markets, sold for a staggering $3.9 billion to the owner of the Chelsea Football Club. That sale price was $1.4 billion more than the price Steve Cohen paid for the New York Mets just five and a half years ago. Simply put, there is no longer any reasonable debate: the business of baseball is booming.

But that is the financial aspect, which is only part of the “concern”. The other? The so-called competitive balance problem in baseball. Well, it’s early, but the start of the season has already demonstrated why these “issues” have been vastly overstated and used as weapons by owners pushing for a salary cap. And those same New York Mets showed how absurd the crying has become.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) looks on during a game against the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia, August 19, 2025. (Amber Searls/Imagn Images)

New York Mets’ losing streak and minor market success are the story of 2026

This concern, that small-market teams cannot compete with the large payrolls of large-market teams, fundamentally misunderstands the gaps between baseball teams. Yes, there are significant benefits to having more money for players to spend. But that money has to be spent wisely for it to matter. The Mets might be the perfect example of how money can’t solve everything.

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the league in payroll and caused massive outrage this offseason by signing Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz. Yes, the Dodgers are in first place…with a half-game lead over the small-market Padres. Diaz allowed three runs without getting an out Sunday afternoon, pushing his ERA over 10, and Kyle Tucker was the 78th most valuable hitter in baseball so far, behind Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman. The Dodgers still got off to a good start, but that was mostly due to stellar performances from the bottom of the lineup, players like Andy Pages, Dalton Rushing, and Miguel Rojas.

The Mets, who trail Los Angeles closely with a $370 million payroll and more than $500 million in payments due this year thanks to the luxury tax, have now lost 11 straight games after blowing a ninth-inning lead against the Cubs on Sunday. They’re tied for the worst record in baseball, have scored the second-fewest runs in the league and are already eight games out of first place in the National League East.

The Mets are also 43-60 since the end of June 2025, one of the worst records in baseball over that span. Once again, this is a team that will have spent almost a billion dollars on payroll over the last two years. They missed the playoffs in 2025, and the poor start dropped their playoff chances to just 41% this year.

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Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider yells at umpire Dan Merzel during the fifth inning of their MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Rogers Center in Toronto, Ontario on April 7, 2026. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays, who made the 2025 World Series and have the fourth-highest payroll in baseball at around $290 million, currently sit in last place in the American League East with an 8-13 record. They have already been dominated by 26 points.

What about the Philadelphia Phillies, who have historically been one of the biggest spending teams in baseball? They rank fifth in team payroll at $285 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $320 million. They sit in fourth place in the NL East with an 8-13 record, and their -38 run differential is literally the worst in Major League Baseball.

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The Houston Astros rank seventh in payroll, at almost $240 million. They are in last place in the American League West, having allowed the most points of any team in the sport. Even worse than the Rockies, who play their home games at Coors Field.

What about the “poor” small market teams?

Well, the Cincinnati Reds sit in first place in the NL Central at 14-8 ahead of the big-market Cubs, who outspent them by over $100 million. The Athletics are tied for first in the AL West. The Cleveland Guardians are once again defying the run differential gods and sitting in first place in the AL Central, despite having a payroll well under $100 million. The Tampa Bay Rays are second in the AL East, just a half-game back. Miami, the team with the lowest payroll in baseball, about $300 million behind the Mets, sits in second place and has already outscored the Mets’ offense by 28 points.

Does this mean the rankings will end like this? No, not necessarily. The Blue Jays and Astros, for example, have suffered a rash of pitching injuries and the Mets are missing Juan Soto. But that’s where the main point lies. Injuries, underperformance, and expensive veterans who decline as they age can easily derail a season for wealthier teams. Yes, the Dodgers excelled with a huge payroll, but they did so by building depth through minor league development and targeting small-value signings. Mookie Betts out? Rojas, Alex Freeland or Hyesong Kim can take over. Will Smith need more time off? Dalton Rushing, a former top-35 prospect, is the backup. As expansions and franchise sales show, there is a lot of money floating around baseball. And as the rankings so far show, higher salaries aren’t always linked to success. MLB already has competitive balance. To achieve this, we do not need to cancel an entire season that, despite their arguments, would be exclusively intended to enrich the league’s owners.

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