Somehow you can feel it in your bones. A wave of considerable anxiety has swept through a world struggling to cope with the impact and possible consequences of the unfinished war in Iran. We are at a turning point in history and no one knows how it will play out.
But there are certain messages that we can already decipher. In an allegorical sense, we saw the impotence of power. And there is this example of how a battered country that has suffered enormous loss of life and property can find strength and influence through its strategic response to a powerful force.
It would be difficult for a creative writer to imagine this story. She may prefer to tell it in the mode of magical realism. Or we’d need a Homer to do that, because the events that happened about two months ago have allusions to Greek mythology. And the big challenge for any fictional presentation of the war in Iran would be to draw the character actually played by US President Donald Trump.
I can be excused for this fanciful digression. This is largely due to my inability to bring together the different perspectives and correctly interpret developments on many fronts. This war has generated so many surprises and wonders. And other twists and turns remain embedded in a story rooted in the very nature of Iran-US relations, with Israel pulling the strings behind the curtain.
Although the ceasefire was extended indefinitely by President Trump just hours before the initial two-week ceasefire expired, a war-like situation persists due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This is affecting the entire world and escalating energy and economic crises that were completely unanticipated when the United States and Israel began their essentially pointless war.
In Pakistan, we must understand our very complex and intimate relationship with this war. There is no doubt that we are in a very good position in this regard. Our diplomatic triumph in becoming a mediator is a remarkable achievement, allowing ordinary citizens to be proud of their country.
But we too have to pay the price for this conflict and I don’t think much attention is paid to this issue on an intellectual level. Massive disruption to the business of countries in the Gulf region, particularly the UAE, will soon have a huge impact on our economic and social sectors.
There are so many things that are hotly debated in our casual conversations. I’m a little amazed by the passion with which people I know invest in these discussions. They are also disconcerted by some of the results of this ongoing war. This widely accepted perception of Iran’s astonishing resistance to American aggression arouses great enthusiasm. So, what upheavals will mark the birth of a new order? Where does China fit into this equation?
As I said, things are not easy to understand. Overall, this is a bleak situation that highlights distinct issues across countries. As of this writing, a glimmer of hope has dawned with the prospect of the second round of negotiations between America and Iran in Islamabad, the city which has been under a security lockdown for over a week. How this excessive security has affected citizens’ lives and even caused food and fuel shortages is another story.
Regardless, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit coincided with the announcement by a senior White House official in Washington, D.C., that Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, were returning to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials.
This means that the second round of negotiations would be held at a lower level, in the absence of Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. They are expected to join the negotiations if an agreement is deemed possible. Since Iran has become more influential after 38 days of war, it would surely want to conclude difficult negotiations.
In the meantime, I would like to highlight two reports I saw this week that explain some of the unbearable costs of the war in Iran. One of them is the UN warning that this war will push more than 30 million people back into poverty and increase food insecurity in the months to come. The other concerns the incredible cost of the war to the United States in terms of high-value military equipment.
Alexander De Croo, administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), said Thursday: “Even if the war ended tomorrow, you already have these effects, and they will push more than 30 million people into poverty.” He warned of other consequences of the war, including energy shortages and falling remittances.
He said the disruption in fuel and fertilizer supplies due to the blockage of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz has already reduced agricultural productivity and will affect early yields later this year.
A report in The New York Timesciting administration and congressional officials, said the war in Iran has depleted America’s stockpiles of critical and expensive weapons. The Pentagon’s rush to rearm its forces in the Middle East has made it less prepared to confront potential adversaries, such as China and Russia.
Although White House officials have so far declined to estimate the cost of the conflict, two independent groups say the costs are staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, or just under $1 billion a day. In the first two days alone, the military used $5.6 billion worth of munitions.
Let me conclude with what Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week: “At current production rates, replenishing what we’ve spent could take years.”
And yet America has achieved none of its goals.
The writer is a seasoned journalist. He can be reached at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policies of PK Press Club.tv.
Originally published in The News
