Bitcoin hit $74,000 and lacked further buying pressure.
The largest cryptocurrency returned to $70,987 at midday East Asian time, down 2.2% in the past 24 hours after Thursday’s rise took it to its highest level since early February.
The rise from Saturday’s war-driven low near $64,000 to Thursday’s high of $74,000 was about 15% in five days, but the pullback since has given back about a third of that move.
Chart watchers such as FxPro chief analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical barriers that tend to attract sellers during bear market rallies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to identify where a rebound is likely to stop. The idea is that after a significant decline, prices tend to retrace a predictable percentage of that decline before resuming the trend.
The 61.8% level is the most closely watched because it represents the point where a rally has retraced about two-thirds of its losses, far enough back to look convincing, but historically where bear market rallies tend to fizzle out.
The 50-day moving average, on the other hand, is simply the average closing price over the last 50 days. It acts as a moving resistance line during downtrends because it represents the price at which the average recent buyer breaks even, providing an incentive to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin reaching both at the same time makes $74,000 a technically crowded level.
Kuptsikevich noted that “the bulls still need to convince the community that the bear market is over,” adding that the size of the move was due to a short squeeze from the bears who “put their stops too close to the market price.”
Analysts at Bitunix reported a similar reading on the microstructure. The push towards $74,000 has triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leveraged liquidation clusters are around $70,000. Secondary liquidity pools are around $64,000. This creates a defined range for the next move, with the floor and ceiling both visible on the wind-up heatmap.
Weekly numbers still look strong for the majors. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days. Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080. BNB added 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. Laggards were dogecoin, down 3.7% for the week, and XRP, essentially flat with a 0.2% decline.
However, the macroeconomic situation heading into the weekend is complicated.
Asia’s benchmark stock index has fallen 6.4% since the start of the Iran war, with the MSCI regional indicator heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on track for its best week since November 2024. Oil is posting its biggest weekly rise since 2022. These are not the conditions that typically support a crypto rally.
Friday brought some relief. Asian stocks erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude prices fell following reports that the United States was exploring options to deal with soaring energy costs.
But the war is not over. The Senate failed to block Trump’s continued military actions against Iran, leaving the costs of conflict and energy disruptions as open variables. Defense Secretary Hegseth said operations could last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains indeed disrupted.
The $70,000 level which has been resistance for a month is now the first test of support. Holding it would suggest the breakout is real. Losing it puts the $64,000 floor back into play.
