The White House Office of Regulatory Review is reviewing a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rule on prediction markets, according to a federal filing that could shape how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket operate in the United States.
A RegInfo.gov entry shows the proposal was received by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering a review of what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on “prediction markets.” The filing does not include the text of the proposed rule.
The move is one of the clearest signs yet that the CFTC is preparing a broader federal framework for event contracts, following months of legal and political battles in the sports and election markets.
Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that contracts tied to sporting events effectively operate as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC countered that designated contract markets regulated by the Federal Commodities Act fall under the agency’s exclusive authority.
The executive order governs how major federal regulations are reviewed before they are issued, requiring agencies to submit important rules for economic and policy analysis. OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget, oversees the process.
This timing comes days after President Donald Trump publicly supported the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, as CoinDesk previously reported, calling it “extremely important” that the agency retain “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social article.
The proposal follows a March notice of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC sought public comment on prediction market contracts that could be banned as “contrary to the public interest,” including contracts related to elections, gaming and sports.
