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Bear Bets are real bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica actually makes.
The Belmont Stakes is finally here.
The 158th Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing renovations at iconic Belmont Park.
Post time is 7:04 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 6 and the race will air on FOX.
I am convinced that we will have another memorable weekend. And when it comes to betting on racing, I’ve got you covered.
So let’s move on to my betting card and my thoughts on the big race this Saturday.
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1. The Vitruvian Man: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 in total)
Coach: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
It’s not for nothing that it’s the longest shot on set. They were nowhere to be found against So Happy and Potente in the Santa Anita Derby and will be nowhere to be found here. But hookups will definitely have a good time.
2. Power change: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
He ran a huge second to Emerging Market in his debut, then predictably regressed in his second start, which came in the Tampa Bay Derby. A battle to break first during the tied Derby weekend led Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher to enter it here. Even though I don’t think he can win, he absolutely affects the flow of the race. He will be one of the few horses – Growth Equity probably being the other – in the lead. The faster the pace, the more it helps Repole’s other entrant, favorite ML Renegade. Expect him to hang around for 3/4 or a mile, then get picked up by the big guys.
3. Chief Wallabee: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Coach: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
I thought he was the best 3-year-old in the country entering the Derby and a poor run in the Derby, despite the addition of blinkers, resulted in a fourth place finish. I still think this could be a potential monster in the second half of the year, but at some point he’s going to have to win. He finished behind Constitution in both Florida starts. Despite a huge position advantage in the Derby, he finished behind Renegade there. Is there a chance Junior Alvarado will get him a little closer to the lead if the pace proves smooth? He should have a much easier and cleaner ride here with only nine horses in the field. But I worry if things aren’t going perfectly. Is he the kind of horse where, with every takedown, something goes slightly wrong, resulting in another finish underneath? This race will say a lot about the type of horse the leader is today and can become in the future.
4. Renegade: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
He had the best race in the Derby but has just been beaten by Golden Tempo. I didn’t think he had a chance on the rail, but Irad Ortiz Jr. did an incredible job putting together a trip and getting him out and almost being the ultimate beneficiary of the pace collapse. He’s the legitimate favorite here, but like Golden Tempo, will the likely slower fractions hamper him? I think he has a quicker turn of foot than Golden Tempo, as we saw in the Arkansas Derby and the Remsen. He could therefore have a little more chance of winning without a collapse in pace. Both the jockey and the trainer know how to win this race. He recently chose Belmont’s preferred path to success: competing in the Derby, skipping the Preakness, then returning five weeks later to the Belmont. There are people who think that the horse cannot lose on Saturday. I won’t go that far, but I think it’s very likely that he will present himself in exacta and build tickets around that thinking.
5. Ottinho: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 in total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Someone had to be second to Further Ado in the Blue Grass. And “Tag, it’s you, Ottinho.” He hasn’t run a close enough race to compete for a win here, and Chad Brown knows he needs to step up, but can he fight his way down the track for a third or fourth place finish – which is a nice payday? Unlikely, but possible.
6. Growth stocks: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Manny Franco
His numbers have gone in the right direction in each debut, but he’s still looking to rank a little below the Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Commandment group. I’m not sure that handling Rudy Rodriguez Withers, winner Talk to Me Jimmy with ease in a five-horse Peter Pan, means he’s a real contender here. I think he’s a bit of a de facto rabbit for Klaravich’s other horse, Emerging Market. I expect him to be at the front, pushing the pace set by Powershift towards him and making sure Emerging Markets isn’t too close to a high pace, like he was in the Derby. He won’t win, but he will have a say in who wins.
7. Command: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Brad Cox
Jockey: Jean Velázquez
He never really had a chance in the Derby, as he was roughed up at the start and then hung on. But I don’t know why I have a negative view of his chances. John Velazquez is his fourth different jockey in four races. Did this triple victory in Florida in the Mucho Macho Man, the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby take too much away from him? Will his running style and flow allow him to get there with his late running and grinding style? His two grade-stakes victories came by the nose and neck. If you still believe in it, you will get a prize you could only dream of after winning five in a row entering the Derby.
8. Emerging Market: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
This is the one that catches my attention. Before the Derby, I thought he or Chief Wallabee would win the Belmont, and after finishing fourth and 10th in the Derby and skipping the Preakness to point fingers, I feel even better about my thought process. I expected Emerging Market to run better than he did in the Derby, but I also didn’t account for the fact that he was too close to a fast pace, stuck on the inside and then lost a shoe during the race. But it’s the Derby and this sort of thing happens. I expect a much better trip here, and we should get a price relatively close to the 6-1 ML. It would be fitting for Saratoga native Chad Brown to score a victory at Belmont in the final edition of the race here at Spa. One of those and my first choice just off the beat.
9. Golden Tempo: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Coach: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
It’s a fantastic story, as Cherie DeVaux became the first trainer to win the Derby and is now looking to become the second trainer in four years to win the Belmont Stakes. He’s improved on his form in his five starts, but I still think he’s at the mercy of the pace in front of him. He caught fast fractions in the Derby and he, Ocelli and Renegade took advantage, occupying the top three spots of the trio. He probably won’t get the same setup Saturday as he did on Derby Day. And while there’s no reason to expect him not to run, I think a win is a little out of reach. I will use the stretch-runner underneath.
Suggested Ways to Bet on the Belmont (adjust your dollar amounts to fit your budget)
$10 Exacta 8/4-3 key box $40
$5 Exacta 8/7-9 key box $20
$10 Win-Place 8 $10
$2 Trifecta 8/3-4/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$2 Trifecta 3-4/8/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$1 Trifecta 8/2-3-4-7-9/3-4 $8
Historical Notes
If a horse other than Golden Tempo wins the Belmont Stakes, it will mean that 23 different horses have won the last 24 Triple Crown races. Last year, Sovereignty would be the only horse from this period to win multiple Triple Crown races during this period (2019-present).
Only one of the last 11 Triple Crown races has been won by the favorite (Journalism 2025 Preakness). Seven of the last 11 have been won by the fourth pick or higher.
If Golden Tempo doesn’t finish in the money, it will be the first time since 2010 that the favorite has finished out of the money in all three Triple Crown races. In 2010, Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, Preakness favorite Super Saver eighth and Belmont favorite Ice Box ninth. 2026 Derby favorite Further Ado finished 11th and Preakness favorite Taj Mahal finished 10th. The last Belmont favorite to finish cashless was Exaggerator, who finished 11th in 2016.
Four of Belmont’s last six finalists have been trained by Todd Pletcher (Mainframe 2024, Forte 2023, Nest 2022, Dr. Post 2020). During this period, Pletcher also won the 2022 Belmont with Mo Donegal.
Renegade and Powershift continue the trend of Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Stakes starters having just one word in their name. Each of its last eight Belmont riders had just one word: 2026 Renegade, 2026 Powershift, 2025 Uncaged, 2025 Crudo, 2024 Mindframe, 2024 Antiquarian, 2024 Protective and 2023 Forte.
None of Brad Cox’s last 16 Triple Crown starters have finished better than third (Preakness Catching Freedom 2024 and Derby Angel of Empire 2023). The last time Cox had a horse break the exacta in a Triple Crown race was in 2021, when Essential Quality won the Belmont.
The four Belmont runners trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. ran either first (2022 Mo Donegal) or second (2024 Mindframe, 2023 Forte, 2020 Dr. Post). Irad has the mount on Renegade on Saturday.
