It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a war in the Middle East into an active trading floor.
Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire deadlines to the collapse of the Iranian regime by June.
The speed and specificity of the markets are striking. Bettors are not only betting on the escalation of the conflict, but also on which week it will end, who will replace Khamenei and whether US ground forces will enter Iran by March 7.
The largest market made by Polymarket is that of “Khamenei, supreme leader of Iran by March 31?” » which was 100% resolved after Iranian state television confirmed his death.
The contract generated $45 million in volume, making it one of the most traded geopolitical markets in the platform’s history. The top trader, an account called “Curseaaaaaaa,” won $757,000 on a Yes bet. Four other traders each made six figures.
This market’s chart fluctuated between 25% and 50% in January and February as tensions increased, then climbed vertically to 100% as confirmation arrived.
The biggest deal, however, is “US strikes Iran with…?” » This contract, in effect since December 22, generated a total volume of $529 million, making it one of the largest single markets ever hosted by Polymarket.
The date of February 28 alone attracted $89.6 million in transactions. Every daily contract from February 28 to early March resolved Yes after the strikes began, meaning anyone who bought the specific date before the attack collected a binary bet on when the U.S. military would bomb another country.
The market resolution rules were precise. This requires drone, missile or air strikes on Iranian soil by US forces, not to mention interceptions, cyberattacks and ground operations.
The action has now moved on.
The ceasefire market gives just a 4% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 and a 15% chance by March 6, but rises to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30. Punters are counting on a resolution within a few weeks, not a few months, which is consistent with Bitcoin’s rebound to $68,000 according to the same thesis.
“Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” stands at 54%, up sharply from the 20s when it was trading for months. The “next supreme leader of Iran” market gives a 30% chance of “completely removing the position,” meaning punters see nearly a one in three chance that the theocratic structure itself does not survive. Ali Larijani, former President of Parliament, leads the nominated candidates with 21%.
Land invasion contracts also generate real volume. “Will the US invade Iran before 2027? is trading at 19% with a volume of $207,000, while “US forces will enter Iran by March 7” is at 28% with $2 million traded.
What Polymarket is doing here is something that traditional markets structurally cannot do. Stock and oil futures won’t reopen until Sunday evening, but on Polymarket anyone with a crypto wallet can take a position on Iranian regime change over a casual weekend and see real-time prices from thousands of other participants doing the same thing.
But perhaps the most striking activity occurred before the first missiles landed.
Analytics firm Onchain Bubblemaps on Saturday identified six wallets that collectively generated $1.2 million in profits by betting on a U.S. strike against Iran by February 28, the exact day the strikes took place.
Most portfolios were funded within 24 hours of the attack, betting specifically on the February 28 contract rather than longer time frames, and purchased “yes” stocks hours before the military operation began. The largest single portfolio generated around $61,000 in profits on top of $493,000. A second made around $120,000 on a $30,000 position.
The platform is optically aware.
Polymarket added a note to its Middle East markets on Sunday stating that “the promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased predictions for society’s most important events,” adding that after speaking with people directly affected by the attacks, it found that prediction markets “could give them the answers they needed in a way that TV and X-rated news could not.”
