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The United States’ chances of riding a magic carpet ride to the World Cup title are still slim, but the opening is much wider than it once was.
The United States men’s national team clinched a spot in the round of 16 with its 2-0 victory over Australia on Friday, but there was more reason to celebrate about eight hours later.
After Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0, the United States clinched first place in Group D – Turkey (zero points) cannot finish ahead of the United States (six), who have already beaten Paraguay and Australia (each with three) to win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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U.S. players celebrate their first goal, an own goal by Australia’s Cameron Burgess, during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington, June 19, 2026. (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
That means the United States will face a third-place finisher to begin the knockout stage on July 1 in San Francisco at 8 p.m. EDT.
It remains to be seen who that third-place team will be, as there are 20 different possibilities depending on the rest of the group stage – the United States is expected to face the third-place finisher in Group B, E, F, I or J, and none of those groups have yet clinched a spot in the knockout stage.
Either way, the United States should be favored against their opponent, if all goes according to plan – unless, of course, France or Argentina fall into their group.
The Athletic noted, however, that the most likely outcome, at 58 percent, would be Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 64th FIFA program in the world. Qatar, ranked 58th, follows with 18%, and Ecuador, 28th, is third with 5%.
American Alex Freeman celebrates with his teammates after scoring his team’s second goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match between the United States and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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With a win there, the United States would then potentially be favored again, as they would face the winner of Game 82. This match pits the winner of Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Belgium or Egypt) against another third-placed team. Belgium is the highest-ranked team in this group, at 10th in the world, while the United States is not far behind at 13th.
Perhaps more importantly, the United States can benefit from an extra week of rest for Christian Pulisic, who missed the match against Australia due to a calf injury he suffered in the World Cup opener against Paraguay. With nothing to lose, manager Mauricio Pochettino can, and probably will, limit the play of Pulisic and other stars.
It’s still a tough climb for the Stars and Stripes, but it’s no longer the highest peak.
Alex Freeman of the United States heads the ball to score a goal past Australian goalkeeper Patrick Beach during the World Cup Group D soccer match in Seattle June 19, 2026. (Maddy Grassy/AP Photo)
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The team already has six goals in the group stage, tying their group stage record with one more to go. The USMNT will face Turkey, which needs a win to stay alive, on Thursday in Los Angeles.
