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Yesterday the Twins lost because apparently I was sponsoring the wrong horse in the race. The normally reliable Joe Ryan looked horrible and gave up a number of points early. I actually prefer to lose this way because I don’t need to pay attention to it. This was not the right reading and I can start watching the next game day. It was a game between two AL Central teams; I’ll try it out with each other in the division as the Tigers take on the Cubs.
The Detroit Tigers are still below .500, but no one in the division has taken the lead, so there’s still a chance they can turn things around. You don’t need to remind them in detail how August and September can change a division race. They were heavy favorites last year to win the division, and the Guardians had a phenomenal run to steal the division. The Tigers had the last laugh by winning the playoffs. Still, this team needs a boost in one way or another, and all the talk around it is whether Tarik Skubal will be traded or not.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – MAY 05: Framber Valdez #59 of the Detroit Tigers throws a pitch during the third inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park on May 05, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) ((Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images))
During the offseason, they knew they would have to make a decision regarding Skubal, and they signed Framber Valdez, the best starter available, to somewhat soften the blow of losing Skubal. For the year, Valdez is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. These numbers aren’t terrible, but they’re not exactly the best quality either. Valdez did a really good job keeping the ball on the ground, overall. He has 178 ground balls against 158 balls, and that doesn’t count his strikeouts. Cubs hitters also didn’t do particularly well against Valdez, hitting just 4 for 32 against him.
The Chicago Cubs are essentially in the same place they were last season. They were solid as a club, but they still look up to the Milwaukee Brewers. They’re one of the most consistent clubs in baseball, and if their offense starts to slow down, they’re going to really struggle. This is mainly because the pitching staff appears to be held together by duct tape and band-aids. They made a few trades to get some weapons that could help them for the year, but no one you really want to go into the playoffs with.
June 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at American Family Field. (Michael McLoone-Imagn Images)
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One of the trades they made was for today’s starter, David Peterson. His numbers are pretty ugly, but the Cubs thought they could turn him around or saw something in him that made them think it was a worthwhile investment. He is 4-7 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.64 ERA. He was much better in his last outing for them than his first. Against the Orioles, he went five innings and allowed two hits and one earned run. Against the Cardinals, he allowed 10 earned runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings. The Tigers are 3 of 8 against him.
Wrigley Field in Chicago hosts a game between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets on April 17, 2026. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
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Some stadiums have a greater impact on betting than others. When the wind blows at Wrigley Field, the ball flies away and it seems like the total can’t be high enough. Tonight the wind will blow. Peterson is more of a flyball thrower, but there shouldn’t be too much damage against him, considering the wind can knock things over. Valdez is more of a ground ball thrower. I think this game will go under 8.5 tonight with help from both wind pitchers. The Tigers are also not a major offensive force. Give me the bottom.
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