Hosting talks at such a level has already significantly improved Islamabad’s reputation
ISLAMABAD:
All eyes are on Islamabad as Pakistan prepares to host the second round of talks between Iran and the United States. The fragile ceasefire between the two sides is about to expire, leaving virtually no room for failure.
Both sides had indicated they would attend the highly anticipated negotiations, with US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher-Ghalibaf expected to lead their delegations. However, uncertainty hangs in the air since Iran has not yet officially confirmed its participation.
On Tuesday, Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar, said on X that a “formal response from the Iranian side regarding the confirmation of the delegation to attend the Islamabad peace talks is still awaited.”
American President Donald Trump does not hide his impatience. He warned that he “expects to bomb” if there is no progress, and made clear that he would not extend the ceasefire until an agreement was reached.
At the same time, he expressed optimism that a deal remains possible, even if U.S. operations continue against Iranian ships.
The crisis erupted on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran.
The attacks targeted leadership complexes in Tehran, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites and military installations, and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials.
Iran responded with missile barrages and proxy actions, pushing the region to the brink of full-scale war by closing the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices skyrocketing.
Pakistan acted quickly to contain the danger. Building on decades of working relations with Washington and Tehran, Islamabad opened behind-the-scenes negotiations.
In early April, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir helped negotiate a two-week ceasefire that took effect on April 8. The first round of direct negotiations, known as the Islamabad talks, took place on April 11 and 12 at the Serena Hotel.
A large American team led by Vice President JD Vance faced an Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher-Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, mediated by Pakistani officials.
The sessions lasted more than 21 hours. There was no final agreement to end the war, but both sides agreed to continue dialogue. This result “neither breakthrough nor rupture” made it possible to maintain the ceasefire in force until today.
Today, the pressure is greater than ever. A deal could stabilize oil markets and ease fears of further clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. Failure could reignite fighting, drive up energy prices and send economic pain far beyond the Middle East.
What experts see for the future
Three seasoned voices – former ambassadors Asif Durrani and Ali Imran, and foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman – lay out the most likely pathways and what they would mean for Pakistan and the world.
Durrani describes the standoff as a high-stakes confrontation between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other. Success, he said, would end hostilities and open the door to resolving larger issues through dialogue.
For Pakistan, it would be a real victory, based on what it calls Islamabad’s “unique” position, strong relations and a certain degree of trust with Tehran and Washington.
Ali Imran is hoping for something more substantial, a broader agreement that would keep the process alive even if differences remain. “If the negotiations are successful,” he said, “Pakistan will be seen as having played a key role in preventing a major conflict.”
Kugelman is not optimistic but sees a realistic opening.
Facilitating even a limited agreement, truce extension or discreet agreements on hotspots like the Strait of Hormuz would present Pakistan as a responsible and peace-oriented actor, potentially unlocking investment and deeper international engagement.
For the rest of the world, the benefits would be calmer energy markets and a reduced risk of greater war. He warns, however, that global attention often drifts once the immediate crisis has passed, and that a weak deal could simply obscure deeper issues and delay the next confrontation.
Best case scenario if negotiations fail
Even failure is not a total loss. Kugelman notes that Pakistan may yet deserve credit for its sincere de-escalation efforts. In a contained surge, the world could benefit from sharper leverage for future cycles or accelerate the transition to alternative energy sources.
Worst case scenario, if negotiations fail
This is where the warnings get serious. Durrani says a breakdown would lead to renewed attacks and wider regional escalation. Pakistan is already feeling the pressure of rising oil prices; further unrest would cause a brutal economic shock while destabilizing the region as a whole.
The ripple effects extend far beyond the immediate players: the entire Middle East is already under stress, and global energy prices – already soaring even in the United States – would rise even further.
Imran is equally direct. The nightmare scenario, he says, is that Iran simply doesn’t show up. “This would lead to a breakdown in engagement and wider conflict,” he warns, with destabilizing effects across the Middle East and new inflationary pressures felt around the world.
For Pakistan, the reputational risk is real, having invested so visibly in mediation, failure could undermine its credibility as a negotiator. Kugelman acknowledges that this could expose Islamabad to criticism for overestimating its influence, although he believes the country could still command respect simply by staying at the table.
Pakistan’s diplomatic balance
All three experts welcome the approach taken by Islamabad so far. Durrani calls the positioning “unique.” Imran describes it as “positive and constructive”, rooted in Pakistan’s long tradition of reducing conflict in the Muslim world and the Middle East.
However, he warns that this second round will be more difficult: a more assertive American posture will meet a more cautious Iranian posture.
Kugelman sees the mediation effort as part of Pakistan’s broader push for strategic autonomy and a better global image. Whether or not there is a major breakthrough today, simply hosting talks at this level has already given Islamabad a positive image.
