A new debate concerns the persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces
ISLAMABAD:
It was in September 2024 that speculation, sparked by a series of leaks, began circulating about the federal government’s planning for the 26th Constitutional Amendment. As is often the case, the government publicly dismissed the reports as mere speculation, while official circles steadfastly denied that such a move was being considered.
However, a few weeks later, not only was the project publicly recognized, but the amendment was also quickly adopted by Parliament.
Now, once again, similar rumors are circulating, suggesting that the federal government is considering another constitutional amendment.
And, as with the 26th and later 27th Amendments, the pattern seems familiar: official denials rise to the surface, even as political whispers continue to build beneath.
Following the passage of the 26th and 27th constitutional amendments, talk of another possible round of constitutional changes has once again entered Pakistan’s political discourse, with speculation around a 28th constitutional amendment circulating in political circles despite official denials that such a process is underway.
At the heart of the renewed debate is the persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces, reflected most visibly in the long-running National Finance Commission (NFC) price debate.
As federal spending continues to rise, particularly on debt service and defense, questions around fiscal space and income distribution have re-emerged as structural pressures rather than isolated policy debates.
Analysts note that this recurring debate is less about possible imminent constitutional development than about the constraints embedded in the federal fiscal structure, where constitutionally protected provincial actions coexist with a federal government in financial difficulty.
Justice Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar clarified that there was “no indication” of a proposed 28th Amendment, while noting that any future constitutional initiatives would require consultation with coalition partners.
His remarks also highlight ongoing policy discussions around population management, strengthening local government and long-debated proposals for new provinces such as Hazara and Saraiki regions.
On the other hand, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said that the Pakistan People’s Party had not been consulted on such a proposal, reiterating that constitutional amendments could not take place without the agreement of the PPP.
On the other hand, Prime Minister’s aide Rana Sanaullah acknowledged that discussions with the PPP were taking place in political circles over budgetary constraints and burden sharing between the federation and the provinces, driven by increased expenditure on debt servicing and defense.
His remarks suggest that even if no formal process exists, structural economic pressures continue to shape policy discussions.
Meanwhile, opposition voices, including the PTI, have demanded the government clarify the nature and scope of any proposed constitutional changes.
PTI Information Secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram, speaking to The Express PK Press Club, said the party’s stand reflects its character as a national party. He said the PTI believed in maintaining a balance in the distribution of resources and revising the price of the National Finance Commission (NFC) was essential. He added that the 7th NFC Award, constituted after the 18th Constitutional Amendment, was not properly reviewed after the expiration of its tenure and was instead extended every year through presidential orders.
Beyond political declarations, any constitutional amendment in Pakistan is ultimately limited by parliamentary arithmetic, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament.
In the National Assembly, this means at least 224 votes, while in the Senate it requires 64 votes. In the current parliamentary setup, no party holds this strength independently, making coalition alignment essential for any constitutional change. Even a combined position from the main coalition partners would still require the support of smaller parties and independents to reach the constitutional threshold.
Analyst Mazhar Abbas does not rule out the possibility of a “surprise package” from the government, noting that while the discussion remains speculative, political horse-trading cannot be ruled out. It suggests that while a complete rollback of the 18th Amendment is unlikely, space for negotiated adjustments may still exist, even if the 28th Amendment remains largely speculative at this point.
Pildat Speaker Ahmed Bilal Mehboob noted that several elements of the PML-N’s legislative agenda remain unresolved and could resurface in any future constitutional package, particularly those related to strengthening local government and fiscal arrangements.
He added that proposals related to NFC adjustments and new provinces remain politically sensitive and would require broad consensus, particularly from the PPP, which has historically opposed such changes.
He further observed that the constitutional process of creating new provinces is very complex, requiring the support of two-thirds of the relevant provincial assemblies, making such initiatives difficult to materialize in the short term.
