Bitcoin fell below $73,000 on Thursday to its lowest level since April 13, as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran rattled global markets, pushing oil higher and dampening hopes for a permanent ceasefire.
This sale follows American strikes in southern Iran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it retaliated by targeting the US base used to launch the attacks, warning that future responses would be “more decisive”, the New York Times reported. Kuwait, which hosts five US bases, said it had intercepted hostile drones and missiles.
The escalation dampened hopes that Washington and Tehran were close to a deal that could stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
The chances of a permanent ceasefire being reached by the end of the month are now just 8% in Polymarket, down from 70% over the weekend. The perceived chances of this goal being achieved by the end of next month fell from 76% to 42%.
In Kalshi, traders are betting that traffic across the strait will remain subdued. Brent crude jumped nearly 4% to around $96 a barrel, fueling fears that rising energy prices could worsen inflationary pressures around the world.
Crypto markets reacted alongside broader risk assets. Investors remain focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly Thursday’s PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, according to Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin.
“The crypto market remains structurally resilient, supported by long-term accumulation and the strength of AI and blockchain infrastructure narratives,” Szuster said in a note shared with CoinDesk.
“In the short term, the market remains more sensitive to geopolitical developments and the return of institutional flows after the American holidays, keeping bitcoin in consolidation while altcoins trade in a more selective environment,” he added. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
- Bitcoin continues to trade below the 50-week exponential moving average of $84,000.
- The lack of RSI divergences on the weekly price chart indicates that there is no clear market direction.
- The next base level to watch is the $68,000 support bar.
