Bitcoin and ether are nearing the lower end of their recent ranges, the OTC trading desk at leading market-making firm Wintermute said in a note shared Wednesday with CoinDesk, with both assets caught between last week’s hawkish Fed and Iran headlines.
Options markets are pricing in a relatively tight move for the next 24 hours. The Wintermute one-day overlap, a measure of expected swing derived from options prices, puts bitcoin in a range of $61,242 to $63,563 and ether between $1,606 and $1,694, implying moves of about 1.9% and 2.7% respectively.
The context is deteriorating. Token correlations are increasing, meaning assets are moving together rather than on their own fundamentals, while liquidity decreases over the summer months with no new institutional offerings visible in ETF feeds.
Wintermute flagged $59,000 as a level to watch, calling it the bear market low and key support if current pressure persists.
Three catalysts shape the rest of the week: the U.S.-Iran peace deal and whether it holds, Thursday’s PCE inflation number, the Fed’s preferred measure of price growth, and the end-of-month quarterly options expiration, which can amplify moves as traders cancel or close large positions.
