Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October without reaching the upper red bands of the Rainbow Chart. Now, with BTC near $62,500, the price has fallen below the chart floor.
The divergence comes as other widely followed Bitcoin valuation models have also struggled. The Stock-to-Flow model, which links Bitcoin’s price to its scheduled supply reductions, predicts significantly higher prices after the 2024 halving than those ultimately achieved by Bitcoin.
Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, agreed that the lower band does not indicate a permanent collapse.
Bitcoin dead zone
“The ‘Bitcoin is dead’ zone does not mean that Bitcoin is actually dead,” Zalan told CoinDesk. “Historically, this has often marked periods of extreme fear and undervaluation, which were then followed by recoveries. This signals more of a sentiment than a certainty.”
Zalan said the chart remains useful, but “less accurate than it once was.”
“The 2025 cycle has shown that BTC does not have to follow old patterns exactly,” Zalan said. “ETFs, institutions and the evolution of market structure have changed the game.”
Bitcoin is trading near its April 2024 halving price, a development that flies in the face of expectations for the current four-year cycle.
Levin said the chart confirms what “the cycle data has shown us, the exponential growth assumptions built into this chart were calibrated on an illiquid retail-focused asset, not a $1.25 trillion market with ETF flows and institutional balance sheets setting the marginal price.” »
