Bitcoin is trading near a level it typically doesn’t reach until late in bear markets, and it’s holding there even after the hottest U.S. inflation in three years.
Data from Checkonchain shows that BTC has fallen near its 200-week average, a rough four-year trendline watched by long-term holders. The model places bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, an area that has only appeared during the deepest periods of past bear markets.
Bear market dips are a process, not an event.
First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the most difficult phase: months of clandestine actions which gradually exhaust the conviction of those who remain.
In our latest newsletter article, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R
– _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026
The mood on the market is just as bad. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index – a measure of sentiment calculated from volatility, social media posts and market volumes – sits at 9, deeply rooted in extreme fear, down from 11 last week and 48 a month ago.
These readings usually appear when price-sensitive sellers have already made most of their sales. Checkonchain always warns that dips are a process in which capitulation comes first, followed by months of sideways trading that crushes the holders who remained.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024 and changed hands at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but down for the week, with a record series of ETF outflows continuing to pull in money.
The bounce was wide but shallow. Ether rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB added 1.3% to $595, solana gained 0.9% to $65 and dogecoin added 1.1% to $0.085. XRP lagged, down 0.3% to $1.12. All remain down over the past seven days, led by Ether at 6.5% and XRP at 7.5%. Thursday’s gains slow the weekly decline rather than reversing it.
Inflation does not favor a rapid recovery. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, as the war in Iran drove up energy costs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday.
The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, less than economists expected, the only weak point in an otherwise red-hot report.
“Hopes for US regulatory clarity have faded again, with Polymarket’s chances of the Clarity Act being passed in 2026 falling from 62% to 48% this week,” Yves Renno, head of trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, told CoinDesk.
“All eyes now turn to the FOMC on June 16-17, and Warsh’s tone will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin rebounds towards $68,000-72,000 or falls entirely below $60,000.”
Meanwhile, the pressure extends well beyond crypto. Global stocks fell to their lowest levels in more than a month this week as tech selling intensified and U.S. forces struck several targets in Iran, ending a ceasefire in place since April.
MSCI’s all-country world index, the broadest measure of global stocks, fell to its lowest level since May 5, and its Asia-Pacific indicator fell 0.8% to its lowest level in three weeks. Brent crude rose 1.8% to around $95 a barrel. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates later on Thursday for the first time since September 2023, as bond traders price in higher borrowing costs around the world.
