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Bitcoin the rally stalled in the $80,000-$82,000 range, where it has largely been trading since last Wednesday. While fund flows continue to point to a possible breakout, macroeconomic risks, particularly inflation, call for caution.
The United States is scheduled to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to FactSet, the median estimate is 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If true, it would be the largest CPI increase since January 2024 and would be well above the trailing 12-month average of 2.7%.
Analysts worry that such a reading, particularly against the backdrop of what President Donald Trump has described as an “incredibly weak” U.S.-Iran ceasefire and continued high oil prices, could trigger risk aversion, potentially weighing on asset prices.
“Markets are entering a very sensitive period where geopolitics, inflation risks and central bank expectations collide,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at global broker FXTM. “The combination of high oil prices, uncertainty around the Iranian conflict and critical US economic data could lead to increased volatility in global commodities, currencies and stocks in the days to come.”
However, the reaction could also depend on the core CPI index, which excludes the volatile component of food and energy. The core figure is expected to have increased to 2.7% year-on-year, from 2.6% in March.
It’s also possible that higher inflation is already factored in, which could explain why the recovery stalled in the first place.
Beyond inflation, another key development is the proximity of XRP and Solana (SOL) to major supply zones. XRP briefly tested $1.50 today, a price where breakouts have repeatedly proven short-lived since February. The same goes for SOL, which once again approached resistance near $97.
Institutional demand for these tokens is intensifying. On Monday, US-listed spot XRP ETFs attracted $25.8 million in investor funds, the most since January 5. Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also continued to attract money, while Ether ETFs lost $16.9 million.
In traditional markets, WTI crude futures jumped more than 3% and Nasdaq futures fell more than 0.7%, both indicating risk aversion. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows the daily price fluctuations of XRP in candlestick form since January.
The cryptocurrency tested resistance at $1.50 earlier today and has since pulled back. Over the past three months, the token’s rally was interrupted by persistent selling pressure above $1.50.
A decisive break above this level could trigger a much stronger rally as more traders start buying, adding upward momentum.
