Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, according to CoinDesk price data, still looking for a catalyst strong enough to break the range it has held for weeks.
Bitcoin ETF spot selling has slowed from earlier this month, but new institutional demand has yet to return.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded a sixth consecutive week of net outflows, data shows, with only a few days of green. The scale has narrowed, but the lack of sustained inflows shows institutions remain defensive as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance.
The rebound of the dollar constitutes a greater weight. After the June meeting, the Fed’s cautious messaging weakened expectations for short-term rate cuts, lifting the dollar index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 area while keeping Treasury yields high.
With liquidity still limited, capital favors assets offering more stable returns over volatile assets like bitcoin.
The easing of geopolitical tensions after the US-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, providing short-term support. It has not been strong enough to offset the strengthening dollar and cautious flows.
Bitcoin will likely reach a range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the near term, Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is “balanced between favorable and restrictive forces,” he said, with slowing ETF sales and better sentiment on one side, and an unsupportive Fed and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other.
A sustainable recovery in the second half would require more time to accumulate, a return of ETF flows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current rebounds seem more technical than the start of a new uptrend.
