Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore with Rangers favored and over 7.5

We are in a bit of a boring period for sport. We don’t have a ton of major sports going on right now. The NBA took a break from the Summer League (which also set audience records). NFL minicamps have not officially started. The NHL does have free agency, but most of the biggest names are signed. That leaves us with just baseball, which is totally fine with me – I love betting on it. Fortunately, we also have some good games today, like this one between the Mariners and Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners are really frustrating because on paper this looks like a team that should run away with not only their division, but among the best in the American League. This is unfortunately not the case. The Mariners are 51-52 for the season and have been pretty mediocre on the road with a 21-29 record. I’m still waiting for this team to turn it on, but they’re just average. Their offense is regularly in difficulty. The pitching staff is still dominant, but they are not getting the support they need.

Now the Mariners have arguably the best pitcher in their rotation this season, Bryce Miller, to pitch to. Miller is 4-4 for the year with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The problem for Seattle is that it didn’t start the year until May. His ERA per month has also increased each month, going from 1.71 in May to 2.19 in June, and now at 3.06 in July. To be clear, anyone would accept these numbers, but it’s something to keep an eye on. He has also been much worse on the road than at home. He has only allowed 16 earned runs this year, but 13 of them came on the road.

The Texas Rangers currently lead the American League West. This isn’t a big surprise after reinvesting in their rotation during the offseason. The team doesn’t have any super elite hitters, but they still have some very powerful bats in the lineup. Their batting average is one of the best in the league at .247, but they don’t score a ton of runs at just 427 for the season. And the pitching staff they tried to improve is hitting a 4.32 ERA.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitches a game against the New York Yankees in the first inning at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York on May 7, 2026. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Tonight, the major addition they made in the offseason, MacKenzie Gore, is in charge. Gore performed well for the Rangers with a 6-8 record, 4.80 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I think his WHIP may indicate that he can lower his ERA. He was also better at home, with a 3.44 ERA. July was a bit of a rough month for him, with 18 earned runs already allowed, including three of four starts with at least five earned runs allowed. He has faced Seattle twice this season at home; he went five innings, struck out nine batters and allowed one scoreless hit.

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I don’t like the Mariners in this situation. I know they have the better hitter, but it’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation with Miller. On the road it just isn’t as good as it is at home. Gore hasn’t been elite, but he’s been much better and more reliable at home than on the road. Seattle also had overall struggles on the road.

Ezequiel Duran of the Texas Rangers runs toward home plate to score on an error by Cleveland Guardians outfielder Cooper Ingle during the seventh inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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For these reasons, I’m taking the Rangers tonight. Gore is a good pitcher and I think he can get a win to open this series. Texas is 4-2 against the Mariners this season and has already swept them once at home this season. I just think it’s a bad situation and a bad place for the Mariners. I also think the total is over 7.5 tonight.

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