Bitcoin made a relief bounce after dipping below $60,000 on Friday, but a bounce and a bullish recovery are two very different things. The latter depends on a few key price levels, according to analysts.
“The market has become sufficiently oversold to allow for a strong rally, especially if inflation data softens and ETF outflows slow,” HEX Trust analysts said in an email. “But the difference between a relief rally and regime change is acceptance…BTC needs [to retake] $79,000 to $80,000.
In other words, anything below $80,000 would be considered a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only exceeding this threshold would mark the start of new progress.
Their position could be too cautious, according to some observers.
“Technically, a rally up to $68,000 could be considered a rebound from the bearish momentum seen between May 11 and June 5,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level for bulls to beat.
A recovery even at these levels depends on ETF flows and macroeconomic factors. The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have processed redemptions of more than $5 billion over the past four weeks. On Monday, investors withdrew another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
These outflows must reverse significantly for the Bitcoin price to gain upward momentum. Additionally, US inflation data released on Wednesday may be weaker than expected, easing fears of an interest rate hike by the Fed. Data is expected to show that the cost of living rose above 4% in May, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
“The constructive path is conditional: inflation slows, Treasury yields stabilize, AI stocks stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market returns to key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is intentionally simple: below recovery, there is no regime shift,” Hex Trust said. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows hourly fluctuations of the Bitcoin price in candlestick format along with the MACD histogram in the lower pane, which shows trend changes and their strength.
Prices are currently trading near a trendline, which represents the mini-bounce from Friday’s low. A break of this trendline would mark the end of the rebound and set the stage for a potential test of recent lows.
The negative MACD histogram suggests that bearish momentum is strong, meaning trendline support may not last long.
