The price of Bitcoin closely follows the price realized in 2026, currently around $76,200, according to Checkonchain, since the beginning of April.
The realized price is the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoins that were last moved in a specific year. In other words, it reflects the overall cost base of market participants from 2026, and some market participants see it as a more meaningful indicator than traditional psychological support or resistance price levels.
In February, when bitcoin plunged to near $60,000, the market found support near the price realized in 2023, reinforcing the growing importance of these cohort cost basis levels in shaping market structure.
This weekend, the largest cryptocurrency briefly fell to $74,500 before rebounding from its 128-day moving average, another closely watched technical level.
At its current price, bitcoin is trading below two major on-chain metrics clustered around $77,000: the true market average and the short-term holder’s cost basis. Both levels are widely watched as indicators of overall market sentiment and short-term positioning.
Attention also turns to the options expiration on Deribit on May 29, where approximately $6.6 billion in open interest is set to expire.
The largest concentration of call options, approximately $600 million, is at the $80,000 strike price. The most significant short positioning is concentrated at $75,000, with approximately $377 million in open interest. Market makers and traders are incentivized to maintain price action between these levels as expiration approaches, contributing to the current period of compressed volatility.
Data from Glassnode shows that more than 15% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, highlighting how compressed the current trading range has become and how concentrated supply is around these levels.
