Crypto Market Drops, Along With Bitcoin has lost 1% since midnight UTC while ether (ETH) is holding up slightly better, losing 0.65% even as some other risk assets, such as US stock index futures, advance.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures posted gains of 0.35% and 0.20%, respectively, widening the divergence between crypto and stocks that has defined much of this year.
Gold was little changed, holding above $4,000, and the dollar index (DXY) also barely moved, leaving the crypto without a clear macro narrative to rely on.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index sits at 34, deep in “fear” territory, while the average relative strength index (RSI) of cryptocurrency pairs has slipped to 44.07, returning to the oversold conditions that sparked the July relief rally.
Positioning of derivative products
- Fall of belief: Crypto futures contracts are characterized by rolling over rather than establishing new positions. While trading volume jumped 81% to $127 billion in the past 24 hours, open positions (OI) remained stable at around $111 billion.
- Take advantage of stagnant demand: Bitcoin Growth in OI futures stalled near 750,000 BTC, failing to gain traction despite a recent surge that took the price above $64,000. This stagnation indicates that demand for leverage remains weak and is a clear indication that investors are not comfortable increasing their risk exposure. A similar pattern of caution is evident in Ether (ETH) and XRP futures.
- Solana capital outflow: Solana (SOL) is seeing a clear contraction trend, with OI futures falling to 62 million tokens, the fewest since early May. This represents a significant decline from the June 24 high of over 76 million, signaling substantial unwinding of positions and capital outflows from the SOL market.
- Bitcoin Cash Outlier: today constitutes the exception. OI on BCH futures surged 20% to 1.73 million tokens, tying the record set on June 21. This accumulation increases the likelihood of future price volatility, especially as the token slipped 3% to $213 in the past 24 hours.
- Bear Market Delta: Generally speaking, bears appear to be leading price action on most top-tier tokens. This is reflected in the negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) readings for most major coins, including bitcoin and ether. Notably, the privacy-focused ZEC showed the most negative CVD in the market.
- Volatility Fear Gauge Alert: Traders should remain vigilant for potential market turbulence. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is approaching the 36% mark. This level has served as a floor in recent years; Previous instances where the index reached this threshold often preceded major volatility booms and sharp declines in Bitcoin prices.
- Divergence of sentiment on options: On the Deribit options exchange, continued downward caution is keeping BTC and ETH puts prices higher than calls. However, the 24-hour volume figures reveal a tactical upward bias: the Bitcoin $70,000 call has become the most traded contract, while the $2,450 call tops the chart for ether.
Symbolic discussion
- Zcash (ZEC) reversed its trend on Monday after its recent run, falling 3.68% to $527. This decline follows a period of outperformance and may reflect profit taking.
- AI tokens were among the biggest losers, with FET losing 2.94% and TAO losing 2.58%, giving back some of the gains posted last week as the sector struggles to maintain momentum.
- is the biggest mover in the last 24 hours, rising 20% following a wave of noise on social media, led by crypto influencer Ansem who posted a bullish analysis alluding to the company making $30-$40 million per month in a bear market.
- Jupiter (JUP) also advanced, rising 1.02% to $0.197 alongside a recovery in trading volume, continuing the token’s gradual rehabilitation after weeks of heavy losses.
- Lighter (LIT) fell another 1.83%, extending its decline from its record highs as profit-taking continues to weigh on a token that surged more than 200% between May and early July.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Indicator is at 55/100, the highest reading in months, although the Fear and Greed score of 34 suggests the market remains cautious despite pockets of altcoin strength.
