Even as the United States tries to negotiate an end to the war with Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump said the U.S. military is helping ships and oil transit the crucial waterway.
But even though the United States appears to be doing more to move ships through the strait, its efforts have not led to a strong recovery in maritime traffic.
The number of ships passing through the strait each day is still far lower than before the war with Iran began. And the volumes of oil apparently transited are also far below pre-war totals, according to independent tanker tracking companies.
The conflict escalated this week before the United States and Iran appeared to move closer to a ceasefire deal that would open the strait and end the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said in a live televised speech in the country on Friday that the deal with the United States was in its final stages. Mr. Araghchi said that while all commercial vessels would be guaranteed safe passage through the strait, Tehran would retain its control over the waterway and possibly charge a “service fee” for ships passing through it – an arrangement the Trump administration has opposed.
Since the start of the war, Iran has used threats and attacks to deter ship operators from sending their oil and gas tankers through the strait. As shipping traffic declined, the global supply of oil fell, causing gasoline and diesel prices to soar. As long as Iran can suppress tanker traffic and keep fuel prices uncomfortably high, it has leverage against the United States. And this leverage has increased as global inventories continue to decline.
In early May, Mr. Trump announced a military operation, Project Freedom, to help ships crossing the strait, but he quickly ended it, in part over objections from Saudi Arabia. Since then, U.S. Central Command has guided the ships, but has not provided naval escort.
In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said more than 200 commercial ships had passed through the strait safely.
“This extremely successful effort is because the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz – NOT Iran,” Mr. Trump said.
A senior US military official confirmed the figure and said the crossings took place over about five weeks.
This suggests that some six ships per day were transiting through U.S. coordination. Before the war, around 130 ships passed through it every day.
It is almost impossible for independent ship-tracking companies to verify U.S. totals because ships turn off their tracking devices as they pass through the strait with U.S. support. (Ship tracking companies have other ways to track ships, but these methods can take more time.)
Mr. Trump also said that American efforts had helped move more than 100 million barrels of oil through the strait. He did not say when the shipments took place, and a White House spokeswoman did not provide the dates when asked.
Assuming that oil shipments are spread over five weeks, the period provided by the American official, they would amount to almost three million barrels per day. Before the war, about 18 million barrels were shipped through the strait each day, according to Dimitris Ampatzidis, head of maritime risk and compliance at Kpler, a ship tracking company.
A US military helicopter was shot down in the strait on Monday. A U.S. official said it was conducting patrols, not guiding ships. Still, the episode showed the risks U.S. forces could face when helping ships pass, and some analysts said the relatively small amount of oil passing may not justify the dangers involved.
“It’s a risky move,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of Defense Priorities, a research organization focused on foreign affairs.
Iran has sought to establish itself as the controller of maritime traffic in the strait, requiring ship operators to obtain permission from Tehran to pass. Some ship operators, eager to get their vessels safely out of the Persian Gulf, complied and took routes through the strait that runs along the Iranian coast.
This month, Iran said more than 300 non-Iranian ships, mostly oil tankers, had requested safe passage through the strait since early May. Furthermore, Kpler estimated that of the 895 crossings of the strait between March 1 and May 19, just over half were made on the Iranian route.
To loosen Iran’s grip on the strait, the United States established a blockade in mid-April against Iranian and Iran-linked ships, aimed at preventing the country from exporting oil through the waterway.
From the start of the war until the blockade, Iran exported significant quantities of crude oil through the strait, far more than any other Gulf state. During that period, about 1.9 million barrels of crude per day passed through the waterway, three-quarters of which came from Iran, according to data from Vortexa, which tracks energy shipments.
From mid-April to June 1, shipments fell to 1.2 million barrels per day, as Iran’s exports plunged and those of some Gulf states rose, according to Vortexa data.
Although the blockade appears to be working, data indicates that it is leading to fewer Gulf oil outflows through the Strait, worsening the global crude shortage.
“Blocking Iran and preventing its oil from reaching the market hurts the entire market,” Ms. Kelanic said.
While enforcing their blockade this week, US forces struck an oil tanker. India’s shipping minister said three Indian sailors on board the tanker had died.
“The crew repeatedly failed to comply with instructions from U.S. forces,” said Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command. “We issued warnings before the disabling shots.”
Eric Schmitt And Farnaz Fassihi reports contributed.
