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One of my favorite things about sports betting is that we can do it every day. The NBA and NHL normally give us six extra games a day, and football dominates our weekends. With baseball, we have about 15 games to choose from spread out over 150 days a year. There is always something to look forward to in the sporting calendar. I picked tonight’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers for us to enjoy.
The Diamondbacks are off to a good start to the season with a 15-12 record. On the road, they’ve been exactly average, going 6-6 early in the year. For the most part, Arizona was buoyed by solid offensive production. I don’t know if I expected that, considering they traded Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez last season.
They also didn’t really do anything to replace these guys in the offseason. However, the team is hitting .255 for the year, which is good for sixth place in the league. Their 27 homers are in the bottom half of the league, but they are 11th in runs scored.
Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks looks on before Game 6 of the Championship Series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on October 23, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Merrill Kelly leaves for the Diamondbacks. He was another player who was traded from Arizona last season, but he re-signed during the offseason. It wasn’t a very positive return for the team. In two starts, he is 1-1 with a 9.31 ERA and 2.28 WHIP. He recorded a win in his first outing, going 5.1 innings against the Orioles, but he still allowed five hits, two earned runs and four walks. He was solid against the Brewers, limiting them to just nine hits in 51 at-bats.
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The Brewers have been one of the best teams and franchises in years, but this may be a year where they take a step back. They are just 14-13 for the season and 8-7 overall at home. Seeing Milwaukee get off to a slow start is a bit surprising because they’ve overcome just about everything thrown at them over the last few years. As a team, they’re only hitting .231, but they have the same runs scored as the Diamondbacks. They have even fewer circuits, so maybe it’s just a matter of time before the power catches up?
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick throws a pitch during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on April 15, 2026. (Benny Sieu/Imagn Images)
Maybe it’s just a bad patch; they are 1-4 in their last five games and 6-11 in their last 17 games. Tonight they send Chad Patrick to the mound. He had a pretty solid start to the year, but is coming off his worst outing. He also didn’t go deep in many matches.
He has only completed five innings twice in his five starts. Overall, he allowed six earned runs in 23 innings, good for a 2.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. There weren’t many hits against him from the Diamondbacks hitters, but they went 4 for 11 against him.
We have two guys on the mound tonight who have given up quite a few hits early in the season. Together, they allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings. That’s a lot of traffic on the base paths. Both teams are still scoring points, and neither is really relying on home runs to get the points. I think that’s usually a good reason to back off. I’ll take the 8+ races in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy reacts during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts on April 6, 2026. (Paul Rutherford/Imagn Images)
I will say that both starters are capable of putting up zeros, but given their current form, I don’t like it. I think the Brewers win this game too. Officially, I’m just going to play the over.
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