ISLAMABAD:
Inflation in Pakistan is expected to rise slightly in April, with the Finance Ministry forecasting it at between 8 and 9 percent, as supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty continue to put pressure on prices despite signs of macroeconomic stability.
In its monthly economic update and outlook for April 2026, the ministry warned that inflationary pressures were largely fueled by supply-side constraints, even as the economy as a whole remained on stable footing.
The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have increased uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook.
The ministry said inflation, measured by the consumer price index, was expected to rise from 7.3 percent in March to 8 to 9 percent in April. “External demand may remain favorable in certain markets, but the balance of risks becomes less favorable than in a pre-war context,” the report indicates.
At the same time, the report highlights the continued resilience of key economic indicators. The overall primary surplus during the first eight months of the current fiscal year stood at 3.3 per cent of GDP (Rs 4,319 billion), compared to 3 per cent (Rs 3,452 billion) during the same period last year.
