Jokic’s poor shot hurts Nuggets in Timberwolves series

One of the benefits of playoff betting is the hedging opportunities. You can withdraw bets you placed before a series if you don’t like the way it looks.

Of course, it might cost you, but think about it. The Denver Nuggets were the favorites to win the series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

If you had taken Minnesota, you could have protected yourself and taken Denver a few days ago. Of all the remaining NBA series, this one seems the most likely for a team down 3-1 to win the series.

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The Nuggets don’t look like a team that dominated the regular season or even a team that has an elite player in Nikola Jokić. It was another spectacular year for Jokic, and he should win the MVP award, but that will likely go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Jokic led the league in rebounds and assists, which has never been done before this season. He also finished eighth in points, once again averaging a triple-double. However, that wasn’t enough to give the Nuggets an advantage in this series.

Jokić has actually looked pretty average in this series. He averages 25 points per game, which is lower than his regular season total; he increased his rebound total, and thanks to a 16 assist game last game, he’s roughly in line with his season average. What is worrying is that its effectiveness has been terrible.

He’s shooting just 42.2% from the floor and 19.4% from deep in the playoffs. Compare that to his regular season, where he averaged 56.9% and 38.0%, respectively. All this should not be blamed on Jokić. The Nuggets’ defense has been terrible and Aaron Gordon hasn’t been available every game, but a lot of it should fall on his shoulders since he gets so much credit for their success.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves looked like they were going to dominate the series. After four games, the team was sitting comfortably with a 3-1 lead. The team played balanced basketball and excellent defense with great confidence.

Then, unfortunately, the team was hit by the injury bug. Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles and Anthony Edwards hyperextended his knee, which sidelined him for weeks. Edwards is obviously a much bigger loss, but both injuries hurt the team.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić looks to pass the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert defends in the second half in Denver on April 1, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

If the Timberwolves fail to close this deal, we likely won’t see Rudy Gobert get the credit he deserves. He doesn’t score very well in the playoffs, but that’s not really why he’s there.

He’s there to make Jokić’s life miserable, and that’s exactly what he does. We’ll see where the rest of the team goes from here, but he’s been the most reliable of all the Timberwolves players.

Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves is fouled by Justin Holiday of the Denver Nuggets during the second quarter of Game 4 of the second round of the Western Conference playoffs at Target Center in Minneapolis on May 12, 2024. (David Berding/Getty Images)

One of the things most sports bettors know is that NBA players perform better at home. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, that’s about all that’s left.

Julius Randle once led a team when he was with the Knicks, but I don’t think he can do it against the Nuggets. There’s still a lot of talent and I expect better efforts from the Timberwolves in this game, but I can’t back them. I don’t think the Nuggets will necessarily cover, but I’m leaning more that way.

I think this game goes under 224.5 because I think the Timberwolves’ only hope of winning the game and the series rests on their defense and slowing down their offense to limit the Nuggets’ possessions. Give me the bottom.

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