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About a quarter of the way into the MLB season, the theme so far has been parity.
The teams that are supposed to be among the worst – the Rockies, the Nationals, the Cardinals – are all feisty and quite competitive.
The American League has just four teams entering play Tuesday night with a record above .500, and the current division leaders are the Rays, Guardians and Athletics.
These are all surprises to some extent.
If the playoffs started today, the White Sox would be a wild-card team, despite a losing record. Even the vaunted Dodgers have yet to exert their dominance, as they currently look to the Padres in the National League West standings.
While the AL currently only has four teams with winning records, the National League Central has five. And within this league, I think there is a bet that offers some value.
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Pirates manager Don Kelly is currently +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total) to win National League Manager of the Year.
These awards, especially when it comes to coaches or managers, are often about best story, with expectations largely taken into account.
The Pirates were a wild-card team from 2013 to 2015 and have not made the playoffs since. Remarkably, they haven’t won a playoff series since winning the 1979 World Series.
The Pirates are currently 22-19 and look like a serious playoff contender, with NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes leading the rotation.
Braves manager Walt Weiss and Cubs manager Craig Counsell currently have shorter odds than Kelly, but both of those managers have more talented teams with considerably higher expectations than the Pirates.
The Cubs were division favorites entering the year, and the Braves had a down year in 2025. Before that, Atlanta had been a perennial playoff team and World Series contender for nearly a decade. The Pirates are currently +140 odds to make the playoffs, and if they make it, Kelly would, in my opinion, be the favorite to win that award in the fall.
Ultimately, the Pirates are in the conversation for having the least success of almost any major sports franchise over the past few decades. A return to the playoffs would not go unnoticed by voters.
PICK: Don Kelly (+600) will win NL manager of the year
