Prediction markets are moving from one-off bets tied to major events to platforms driven by daily user engagement, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in partnership with Polymarket.
Trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report highlights a deeper shift in behavior. Based on 1.29 million wallet activity in Q1, users are returning more often and participating in a wider range of markets, from crypto to sports to politics.
The data suggests that growth is driven by the frequency rather than the size of trade. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign that the market remains dominated by retail players. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users engage in smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. “What we are seeing is a change in behavior: the market is moving with more clicks per day, not larger transactions. »
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of first-time activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural place to start. But as users become more active, participation shifts to markets tied to real-world events.
The report presents this development as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes related to major events like elections. Instead, they become ongoing systems in which users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We are seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
This change also changes the way these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations about macroeconomic, political and cultural trends, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth accelerated quickly. Monthly trading volume has grown from around $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate that market volume could reach $240 billion this year, with a longer-term trajectory toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus shifts to access and usability. Wallets become key entry points, helping users discover and interact with markets in real time.
