Bitcoin is down 3% in Asian morning trading, holding near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week filled with macroeconomic catalysts. This decision seems motivated more by caution than by a change in sentiment.
In a note to CoinDesk, Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said traders were reluctant to push bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision and a set of data released later in the week, including GDP, PCE inflation and the employment cost index. Together, these numbers will determine expectations for when the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half.
For now, the biggest constraint is oil. Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for a dovish signal from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, the market operates under two competing assumptions: geopolitical tensions will eventually subside, but no resolution will come quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively neutralized rate cuts for June (Polymarket punters give a 95% chance there will be no change) and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
In this environment, Bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels. The cryptocurrency is trading about 4% below its near-term holding cost near $80,700, a level often seen as an indicator of a marginal buyer’s conviction.
To decisively exceed it would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-induced inflation will prove temporary. Absent that, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively in the data released Thursday, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macroeconomic numbers than the Fed’s statement itself.
Beyond this week, a less visible force could also shape Bitcoin’s next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of demand for AI.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling some of their cash holdings to move into hosting AI data centers – a business seen as more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could, in theory, slow sales.
When demand for computing is high, miners are both incentivized and funded to continue building, which often leads to continued sales of BTC to fund investments and pay down debt.
But while OpenAI’s failure indicates that AI growth may not keep pace with these expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could make miner-driven sales easier over time, removing a source of supply.
The problem is timing: Selling pressure on semiconductor and data stocks, driven by lower risk and technology appetite, would likely send the crypto market tumbling, while any relief from slowing miner sales would come later.
In this sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux’s broader point. The market is caught between competing macroeconomic forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving those that matter most to the price.
For now, this keeps Bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, awaiting a clearer signal.
