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With all the playoff basketball, it seems like I’ve forgotten all about baseball. However, this is not the case. I’m still monitoring it and we’ve collected some money from the few bets I’ve placed on the game lately. Today I’m taking a very close look at the game between the Reds and the Pirates taking place in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, which isn’t exactly something I expected to write about this season. They made the playoffs last year, but given the lack of offseason moves, I just didn’t expect them to be great.
What’s probably most surprising about the Reds is how good they’ve been on the road this season. Last year there wasn’t really a good road team. Those above .500, except the Astros, made the playoffs.
A Cincinnati Reds cap with a special logo is seen during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio on July 3, 2021. Cincinnati defeated Chicago 3-2. (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
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Now the Reds look to continue that success with Rhett Lowder on the hill. For the year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has made six starts this year, exactly half of them at home and on the road. He has a one-run lower ERA on the road than at home, allowing five earned runs in 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in a single game against the Marlins. The Pirates are hitting just 2 of 11 against Lowder in their career.
The Pirates are better than last year, but not exactly a successful club at the moment. They’re hovering around .500 for the season, which is where they were last year. The team still has to find ways to hit, but they are doing better than last year.
They lost five straight games before this series, losing one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe it was just a bad patch, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come. In those games, they allowed 35 points and scored 18. That’s an average of seven allowed and 3.6 scored.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio on April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)
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Carmen Mlodzinski is trying to get the Pirates back on track. For the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has been significantly better at home, but most of his opportunities have come away. He pitched to a 1.69 ERA and allowed just two earned runs in 10.2 innings. His only home start saw him go six scoreless innings and allow two hits and two walks. In his history, he has allowed only three hits in 27 at-bats against the Reds.
Today we have two starters who are in better situations for them. Mlodzinski was better at home and Lowder better on the road. These are still small samples, but it’s a little encouraging. The way the Pirates bled points makes me worry the bottom is toast. The Reds were all over the place with goals and points allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas on April 21, 2026. (Jérôme Miron/Imagn Images)
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In this particular situation, I think it makes more sense to support the least. Both teams are currently playing higher scoring games, but with these two pitchers we should see fewer runs.
For more news and sports betting, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
