- Satellite images independently confirm that a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber was destroyed in an SBU drone strike in Ukraine on Engels-2 air base
- The Tu-95 is essentially an impossible-to-replace Cold War-era asset, with only about 60 in service and at least 10 photo-confirmed losses since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began in 2022.
- The loss is crushing for the Russian armed forces, which deployed new reinforced shelters and painted decoy bombers in an attempt to fool drone operators who managed to destroy the aircraft from a distance of 800 km.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the country’s security services recently destroyed a Tu-95 strategic bomber at Russia’s Engels-2 airbase, but the missing piece was the lack of independent evidence confirming the strike.
While the Ukrainian side claims an 800 km deep strike on one of Russia’s most important airfields, many often demand proof in a war where both sides exaggerate casualties and try to hide losses to advance their own narratives.
This time, however, the receipts came in the form of satellite images released by open source intelligence group AviVector and corroborated by Planet Labs satellite images obtained by Schemes, the investigative project of Radio Free Europe & Radio Liberty, showing a destroyed TU-95MS on the tarmac of Engels-2 Air Base.
A costly loss for Russia and why it matters
The Tu-95 is a machine from another age: a swept-wing turboprop that first flew in 1952, powered by NK-12 engines that remain the most powerful turboprops ever built and make it one of the loudest planes in the sky.
The Tu-95MS variant, adapted from the Tu-142 maritime patrol airframe, is Russia’s primary carrier of Kh-101 cruise missiles that struck Ukrainian cities throughout the war, carrying up to six missiles on an internal rotary launcher, with the modernized Tu-95MSM adding new engines, avionics and pylons for up to eight externally mounted Kh-101s or nuclear-tipped Kh-102s.
Even though the Kh-102s have never been used in war, given their unconventional capabilities, the fact that the Tu-95MS is essentially capable of waging nuclear war from an airborne position shows how central it is to Russia’s overall deterrence, even if it can no longer replace its losses: the production infrastructure that created them is gone, while the promised replacement, the PAK DA stealth bomber program, does not yet exist than on paper.
This decision is important in a war that is as psychological as it is asymmetrical between the two enemies: it demonstrates that Ukraine can strike deep into Russian territory and target even its most distant airfields. Furthermore, the Tu-95MS is one of the most important workhorses of Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine, often used to launch missiles at the latter’s cities and positions; the attack essentially neutralizes Russian capabilities, of which only about 60 are currently operational.
The Ukrainians wasted no time in highlighting both the financial aspect of the coup and its psychological impact, declaring on Telegram (translated):
“The SBU is systematically destroying important elements of the Russian military machine. Each strategic bomber liquidated means dozens of missiles not launched over Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian lives saved and tens of millions of dollars in irreparable losses for the enemy. Russian strategic aviation can no longer feel safe, even at its most remote military airfields.”
On the other hand, the withdrawal of a single bomber does not change the war; Russia launched cruise missile salvos before July 16 and will likely launch them afterward despite the slight loss of capability. It will also continue to strengthen its air defenses and hangars while painting decoys to fool drone operators who manage to slip through, even as its jammers become increasingly sophisticated.
But a fleet capped by a 34-year-old production shutdown, already down double-digits thanks to successful strikes such as Operation Spiderweb in Ukraine, which lost cells at a base it spent months fortifying, is a fleet whose every remaining mission carries a slightly rising price tag. Ukraine cannot build Tu-95s either. The difference is that a Ukraine that goes on the defensive and uses drones does not need to do so.
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