Say Bitcoin the bears are having a great time, that would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency lost 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the February crash. The broader crypto markets have been just as brutally beaten, and most analysts say the situation could deteriorate further if BTC crosses the critical $60,000 threshold.
Amid the gloom, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, sees a different picture.
This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he thinks “the bottom is almost there.” His file is based on three pillars:
Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: during the last BTC sale, in December 2022, Strategy bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the company to do the same after selling 32 BTC last week. He could potentially buy up to 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that if confirmed next Monday, he would view it as a tentative signal that the bottom has been reached.
ETF holdings are stronger than expected: the 11 U.S.-listed cash ETFs saw a net outflow of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet if we zoom out, holdings have barely moved. Cumulative net inflow since inception in early 2024 returned to $54.2 billion, exactly where it was earlier this year. “They went from 682,000 and then back down to 674,000 today (essentially unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are structurally stronger than I had feared in February,” he said.
The liquidations are mostly complete: Bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges. This figure is similar to January, and because BTC has already underperformed stocks this year, the pool of leveraged long positions remaining to be liquidated is smaller than before, he argued.
Takeaway meals? There are too many “ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.
“I think when we look at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000, we will say that was the buy zone we all wanted,” he said. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
Bitcoin’s weekly price chart suggests the same thing as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: the bear market is likely in its final stages and the bottom may be near.
The cryptocurrency is trading near its 200-week simple moving average. This is notable because previous bear markets ended around the same average, as shown by the green arrows on the chart.
So if the past is any guide, a bottom could come soon. Note, however, that past models do not guarantee future performance.
