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The United States men’s national team’s path to a World Cup title just became a little clearer.
According to The Athletic, there is now a greater than 99% chance that the United States will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 16 next week following the latter’s 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday.
After winning Group D last week, the United States had to face the third in another group: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s victory clinched third place in Group B, and therefore an almost confirmed date with the Stars and Stripes.
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American Folarin Balogun celebrates scoring the second goal with his teammates in Inglewood, California, June 12, 2026, during the FIFA World Cup Group D match against Paraguay. (Gary Vasquez/Imagn Images)
The outlet notes that two other countries, Senegal and Austria, each have less than a 1% chance of facing the United States to begin the knockout phase.
A tie would have opened up many other possibilities, but the United States might have had the best-case scenario. Bosnia and Herzegovina ranks 62nd among FIFA programs, while the United States ranks 14th. Meanwhile, Qatar was eliminated by defeat.
However, before getting there, the United States must face Turkey to complete group play. However, since the United States has already won the group and Turkey has already been eliminated, the match is essentially just a scrimmage.

American Christian Pulisic celebrates with his teammates his first goal, an own goal scored by Paraguayan Damian Bobadilla on June 12, 2026 in Inglewood, California. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)
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At the risk of bad luck, the calendar is going rather well for the Americans. If the United States advances to the round of 16, it will face either the winner of Group G or another third-placed team. Of all the possible opponents in this round, only Belgium, who currently need a win and an assist to win Group G, are ranked ahead of the United States, and just barely – Belgium is 10th in the world.
The United States is one of the most successful teams at this World Cup, having scored six goals in two matches. They are already tied for first in the group stage, even with a game to play.
The Americans opened the World Cup with a 4-1 victory over Paraguay and followed that up with a 2-0 win over Australia to punch their ticket to the round of 16. The U.S. team won the group when Paraguay beat Turkey later in the evening.

Team USA celebrates a goal against Paraguay during a 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)
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The victories mark the first time the U.S. men’s national team has won consecutive World Cup matches since the inaugural event in 1930.
The game against Turkey kicks off Thursday at 10 p.m. ET, and the game against, in all likelihood, Bosnia-Herzegovina will take place next Wednesday in the Bay Area.




