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In a World Cup semi-final like this, there is so much to unpack. I have previously written about the historical, emotional and psychological aspects of the World Cup match between England and Argentina, so I also want to delve into the tactical elements of this highly anticipated semi-final.
On paper, and from what I’ve seen from both sides so far in this tournament, the similarities may be stronger than the differences. And while I think the Three Lions’ journey has been tougher (arguably a tougher group, a hostile, altitude-defying win over Mexico just before facing the heat and humidity of Miami in the middle of Erling Haaland’s Norway), the fact is that very little separates these two sides. These are two giants of the game who have shown examples of their genius and vulnerability.
There is also the overall record since England dominate in this area, having lost only twice in 14 matches against Argentina. But one of those defeats came in the dramatic 1986 match against Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” and his “Goal of the Century.” Then there was the 1998 result – which was David Beckham being sent off after kicking Diego Simeone – which ended in a draw after extra time, but ended in England losing after a penalty shootout.
The fact is that this one is difficult to predict. It’s a contradiction due to a sense of familiarity due to rivalry, but there’s also a detachment because they haven’t faced each other at the World Cup in 24 years.
Let’s also remember that England have never faced Lionel Messi – and that’s a statistic that exists in itself. Stopping him is betting on your own fate, so I’m not even trying to tell you how Thomas Tuchel plans to do the impossible, especially when England have never even attempted to do it.
In terms of parallels, let’s focus on the individual side and the superstars of the World Cup, as there is a heavy reliance on them. Both have high-octane attacking options that contribute far more than anyone else.
For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane scored six goals each, making it the first time in men’s World Cup history that a team has seen two players score six or more goals in the same tournament. England have scored 13 goals in total, including 12 from the aforementioned Kane and Bellingham, so the reliance on either is monumental.
But the same can be said of Argentina and Lionel Messi. The Albiceleste have 17 goals in the competition, more than any other team and one shy of their record of 18, reached in 1930. But eight of those aforementioned 17 goals have come from Messi. Alongside Kylian Mbappé, Messi became the second player (since 1966) to score 10 or more goals in more than one World Cup.
But I think ultimately this game is played in two areas: midfield and on the flanks. Declan Rice and Eliot Anderson’s battle with the line of Leandro Paredes and Enzo Fernández will test the stealth and momentum of the center, where much of the action will take place.
And far away? Argentina are a very narrow team and winger Anthony Gordon, who attempted more dribbles (10) against Norway than any English player since Darius Vassell in 2002 (according to Opta), could have another good day against right-back Nahuel Molina. Even more so on the other side – whether Noni Madueke or his Arsenal teammate Bukayo Saka – against 33-year-old left-back Nicolás Tagliafico. Lionel Scaloni must surely find space for defensive midfielder Nico González.
Anthony Gordon will help England attack the flanks. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
England should have the majority of possession, and I think it’s important that Argentina use it wisely when they have the ball. Argentine goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, excellent with direct and long passes, will again be needed to find offensive stars like Julián Alvarez, Messi, Thiago Almada and Lautaro Martínez.
Argentina will need players like Julian Alvarez to continue helping Lionel Messi. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
But overall, we know this is a game that will go far beyond tactics or analytical thinking. It’s a match made of emotion and unfailing determination. There will be situations where the actual game plan can determine a conclusion and I think overall, on paper, England have enough wherewithal to win this one.
It’s not a match written on paper. It was shaped on the field through blood, sweat and relentless effort.
From the first whistle, we can therefore throw everything out the window and marvel at a real battle whose outcome we will only know when we have found the answer to the only real question remaining: who is ready to sacrifice everything for a chance at glory? We’ll have to wait and see.
