But the regulated U.S. app and the global platform are fundamentally different products. The US version requires full KYC identity verification, is funded by registered futures commission merchants rather than crypto wallets, and is settled in US dollars. The global platform, still geo-blocked for US IP addresses, undergoes no identity checks, is based on USDC and covers a much wider range of markets.
The $571 million figure refers to Americans trading on this global platform through VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium tracked wallet behavior rather than IP addresses, which explains why a VPN that defeats geoblocking still leaves US fingerprints in the data.
Kalshi’s moment of escape
Appointed as the official FIFA Predictions Market Partner during the tournament, Kalshi had branding rights, an on-site presence and a media distribution deal with Fox Sports. However, user growth was already well underway when Kalshi signed its co-branding deal with ADI Predictstreet, the official FIFA World Cup prediction marketplace partner, on June 26, just four days before the Apptopia data was recorded. Kalshi and Polymarket advertised heavily during matches, with commercials shown during the half-time break, as well as so-called hydration breaks during US broadcasts.
Data from the Apptopia app revealed that as of June 30, Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% higher than their June 15 level. Over the same period, DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament high, FanDuel fell 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each declined 32%. Traditional sports betting apps peaked early and faded away, while prediction markets grew steadily.
