Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are giving off their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the path to new highs won’t be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased 300% since late 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have begun making $180 million in profits per day since BTC surpassed the $82,000 level on May 11 before falling from $81,000 to $79,000 on Thursday.
“This is a moderate amount compared to past cycles and suggests that current sales are under control,” they said, explaining that the concern lies in the losses realized daily, which they say remain on average at $479 million. “In quieter times, this figure gets closer to $200 million. Until losses reach the $200 million mark, the on-chain recovery is not fully confirmed.”
The gamma trap
Supporting this cautious outlook, a “gamma trap” has been identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short positions in gamma options clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As Bitcoin trades in this zone, market makers are forced to cover their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “driving down” the price towards $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a misleading environment. “Dealer coverage can accelerate prices toward this level, but once the squeeze wears off, the same positioning can remove momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying movement, without necessarily validating it.”
Although on-chain data shows improvement, the analyst said: “In contrast, corporate buyers remained silent. Major players purchased very little bitcoin last week, with an 80% drop in purchasing volume compared to last month.”
A major red flag is flying
Fernandes points to the divergence between prices and institutional flows as a major warning sign. Despite the rally, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $635 million on May 13, the largest single-day outflow since January.
Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, noted that the current “cost-basis battleground” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.
Beyond the technical aspects, the economic landscape as a whole remains an obstacle. On May 13, the US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, against a backdrop of inflation rising 3.8%. Fernandes noted that the market now incorporates a “higher and longer” reality.
“Kevin Warsh has already expressed his expectations that it is unlikely that there will be a rate cut this year – it is even possible that there will be a rate hike,” Fernandes said. “I just don’t see BTC hitting a new ATH this year unless something drastically changes geopolitically.”
Given the high realized losses and lack of corporate support, which saw an 80% drop in buying volume last week, Bitfinex analysts said they expect a quick jump to between $82,000 and $84,000, followed by a “neutralization period.”
Fernandes concluded that the current structure resembles an “incomplete capitulation.” Until the market can eliminate the $479 million in realized daily losses and regain institutional conviction, the $85,000 level remains the primary “fair value battleground” of the cycle.
