Bitcoin funding rates are issuing one of the most bearish positioning signals in years, even as spot prices continue to climb.
Funding rates are close to minus 4% annualized, James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, said during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. That means long positions are paid to maintain exposure, a rare setup that indicates significant short positioning.
“Long positions get paid, which is quite rare,” Aitchison said. “On a 30-day basis, this is the lowest level this decade.”
This setup reflects a broader disconnect from derivatives. Bitcoin funding rates hit their most negative levels since 2023 in April, even as BTC topped $75,000 at the time. Aitchison said similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns over periods of 30 to 365 days.
Bitcoin has rebounded from around $60,000 to $80,000 at the time of writing. The move forced traders to reassess whether legacy crypto-native signals still work in a market increasingly shaped by ETFs, basis trading and distribution on Wall Street.
Spot demand for Bitcoin ETFs held up during the pullback. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought in $1.6 billion so far this month, even as short-term holders have sold.
This resilience has placed ETF holders at the heart of the current market structure. Dan Blackmore, chief commercial officer of Glassnode, said bitcoin was moving into a new regime as volatility decreased and allocations became more strategic.
“We are witnessing the beginnings of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the crypto market,” Backmore said.
Options accelerate this change. IBIT options open interest surpassed Deribit in April, indicating a migration of Bitcoin derivatives activity to regulated venues in the United States. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF opened last month, adding another major wealth management platform to the market.
Panelists were divided on whether the four-year cycle still mattered. Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” said bitcoin could still trade lower ahead of a larger supply shock in 2028-2029. Others have argued that the halving cycle is losing strength as Bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
The end-of-year appeals reflect this split. Terpin and Backmore said bitcoin may not reach a new high this year. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Labs, said $250,000 was possible. Aitchison said $150,000 is a reasonable goal if the rate cuts return.
