As part of a significant change in Bitcoin’s market structure, the amount of supply held by “conviction buyers” has jumped to nearly 4 million BTC, according to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex on Wednesday.
Bitcoin in the hands of long-term buyers currently represents a 300% increase since the end of 2025, signaling a massive migration of realized value from crypto to large, low-activity entities, according to Bitfinex.
The massive “conviction” capital is valued at just over $320 billion, based on Bitcoin’s current price of around $80,000.
“While the exact methodology behind BitGo’s ‘conviction buyers’ measure is not immediately clear, the broader signal is notable,” said Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics. “Historically, periods of tight liquid supply combined with renewed demand have created the conditions for Bitcoin’s most aggressive bullish expansions.”
The current accumulation trend marks the largest two-quarter increase in high-conviction buying since the COVID-19 crash of 2020, Bitfinex said. Conviction buyers are long-term investors, whether individual or institutional.
Long-term buyers’ holdings are not part of the estimated 5.6 million BTC that have been dormant for more than a decade, according to Jameson Lopp, a leading Bitcoin developer. The total amount of bitcoins in circulation is currently 20.03 million, according to CoinDesk data.
Bitfinex analysts noted that a growing portion of bitcoin’s realized value is no longer circulating on crypto exchanges, but rather passing through the hands of entities that rarely transact, regardless of price volatility.
This structural shift suggests that long-term holders, ranging from institutional “whales” to corporate treasures, are aggressively absorbing the available bitcoin supply, including Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded bitcoin holding company. This company, which currently has $4.6 billion in unrealized gains, recently increased its total holdings to 818,869 BTC, which it acquired for almost $62 billion. When supply shifts to these low-activity entities, it effectively reduces the liquid supply available in the open market, creating a potential “supply shock” dynamic.
Supporting this market strengthening narrative is CEX.IO research. Their analysis reveals that nearly 70% of recent buyers’ supply is now profitable, a measure that often serves as a psychological buffer against sell-offs, according to research from CEX.IO.
CEX.IO also suggests that as most new Bitcoin investors go “green,” their urgency to exit their positions during minor pullbacks decreases, helping to stabilize the BTC price.
“People who actually get Bitcoin always want to accumulate as much as possible and never want to sell, especially now with all the new ways out there to borrow against BTC holdings,” Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs, told CoinDesk. “This completely changes the supply equation, with more BTC structurally removed from the market.”
In another email comment to CoinDesk, Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, said he believes the narrative of long-term BTC shortage is moving from theory to market structure.
“As ETF flows and institutional accumulation become more structural than speculative, more of the supply is moving into committed hands,” he said, adding that “this could make future shortages much more visible as demand accelerates.”
