Crypto market closes the week on a positive note, with bitcoin adding as much as 1.1% since midnight UTC to $65,760 as the broader market held firm despite a macroeconomic backdrop that is expected to exert much more pressure.
Brent crude futures are trading at $97.66 a barrel, the highest since mid-May, as the Iranian conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. While previous oil peaks have dented risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies, digital assets are broadly green this morning.
Ether (ETH) mirrored Bitcoin’s gain, rising as much as 1.6%, while stocks like HYPE and FET rose more than 2%.
Traditional markets are quiet, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both slightly positive and gold holding above $4,000. The dollar index fell slightly.
Positioning of derivative products
- Market developments dominate activity: Volume increased 11% to $165 billion in 24 hours, while open interest (OI) remained stable at around $116 billion. This shows a market that is experiencing disaffection rather than positional interest.
- Dogecoin bearish accumulation: DOGE futures OI continues to rise and approaches 16 billion tokens, the most since October. The continued gains come as the DOGE spot price remains under pressure after falling to its lowest level since November 2023 on Thursday. The combination of rising open interest and falling prices would confirm the downtrend and signal traders’ interest in shorting the falling market.
- Mixed signals from the ether: The OI on ether futures is also on the rise, currently at 14.53 million ETH, the highest since June 7. Other indicators paint a mixed picture with positive funding rates still indicating bullish sentiment while the negative 24-hour CVD indicates that bears are leading the price action by shorting market orders rather than placing limit orders.
- Bear Leadership on a Large Scale: Except for TRX and CRO, most tokens, including BTC, have a negative 24-hour CVD.
- Volatility decreases: There is good news for bulls in the BVIV index, which measures BTC’s 30-day implied volatility. The measure fell 3% since midnight to 39%, ending a five-day streak of progress. Ether’s EVIV is also under pressure.
- Option group: In the Bitcoin options market listed on Deribit, a massive $5 billion open interest cluster has formed with $70,000-$72,000 options, driven primarily by bullish bets or calls. The volume rankings also show an upward bias, with calls for the $77,000 and $80,000 strikes listed alongside other calls.
Symbolic discussion
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) led the altcoin market for the second straight session, rising 2.4% to $58.93 as it rebuilds with a series of higher lows since its July pullback from record highs.
- AI tokens FET and NEAR recorded gains of 2.23% and 1.38%, respectively, offering tentative signs of stabilization after weeks of underperformance, while added 1.89% to extend one of the DeFi sector’s most consistent runs this month.
- returned 2.13% of Thursday’s 12% rally, a familiar trend for the Trump family-linked token, which remains highly vulnerable to sharp reversals due to low liquidity.
- Lighter (LIT) fell another 1.32%, extending a decline that has now narrowed by almost 20% from its July peak as profit-taking continues following its over 200% rise between May and early July.
- The broader 24-hour picture tells a more cautious story, with WLFI, AVAX, HBAR and SUI all down between 4% and 10% over the past day, a reminder that the intraday rally is masking continued weakness in part of the altcoin market.
