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It’s been two entire seasons since the Dallas Cowboys last recorded a win and secured a playoff berth. But with a lauded draft class and some notable offseason moves, will the Cowboys regain their footing and return to the postseason?
Don’t count on it, or at least that’s what Colin Cowherd thinks. Cowherd said in Tuesday’s edition of “The herd“ that he has taken note of Dallas’ schedule struggles and doesn’t think it will match what oddsmakers have predicted as a projected win total for the 2026 season.
“Over/Under is 8.5 wins. I’ll take the under,” Cowherd said. “I think they’re a 7-10 or 8-9 team. I like their draft, I like their staff, but last year they played the third-easiest schedule and won seven games, and their eight games against teams with winning records they went 1-7.”
Although the full schedule for the 2026 NFL season has not been announced, the Cowboys know who they will face this fall. They play eight games against teams that made the playoffs in 2025, including the Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. One of their designated home games will be in Brazil, against a Baltimore Ravens team that has had a rough year in 2025. They also have to travel to Green Bay to face the Packers and face the Texans in Houston. And that’s all before we mention their four other matchups against division foes, as the New York Giants and Washington Commanders appear to be in position to contend for the playoffs in 2026.
The Cowboys finished their 2025 campaign 7-9-1 in the first year of the Brian Schottenheimer era, showing some improvement over Mike McCarthy’s final season as head coach in 2024. Schottenheimer was elevated to head coach in the 2025 offseason after two seasons as the team’s offensive coordinator, helping quarterback Dak Prescott to another impressive statistical season (4,552 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions).
Dallas recently compiled an impressive draft class that included a pair of first-round picks (Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence) as well as some potential mid-round highlights (Michigan edge rusher Jaishawn Barham, Penn State offensive tackle Drew Shelton, Florida cornerback Devon Moore, Alabama edge rusher LT Overton). In a year where defensive depth was needed, Dallas took advantage of the jump, with its decision to trade up and draft Downs widely praised.
FOX Sports’ Rob Rang’s draft grade analysis for Dallas was positive, with a long-term view that their new look defensive end has potential.
“With two first-round picks to play with after last year’s Micah Parsons trade, it was clear the Cowboys had the potential to be active in this draft, but they were even more flexible than expected, trading up aggressively to grab star safety Caleb Downs at No. 11 and salvaging picks by moving back and still gaining explosive upside with Malachi Lawrence at No. 23.” Rang wrote.
After trading Micah Parsons to the Packers last August in exchange for two first-round picks, the Cowboys will need their draft class and the impact of key offseason moves — like franchise wide receiver George Pickens — to help surpass the projected win total of 8.5 wins.
Cowherd acknowledged that because of these moves, Dallas has strong roster depth. However, he doesn’t think the Cowboys have the best talent to make the playoffs in 2026.
“I think their roster is better than we give it credit for, but their schedule is brutal and they haven’t shown the ability with Brian Schottenheimer to win consistently against better quarterbacks. If you look at the Cowboys and say, ‘I like what they’re doing,’ you need to check the schedules.”
