Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently become the preferred place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, providing a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimums, these on-chain marketplaces are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, enabling 24/7 price discovery on IPO listings.
At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX implied a premium of only about 16% over the IPO price of $135, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium is back to almost 36%.
Other parallel markets are now moving in the same direction. Bloomberg reported Friday that IG International’s derivatives implied a valuation of SpaceX of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.
Elsewhere, Polymarket traders estimate a 70% chance that SpaceX will close its first day of trading above $2 trillion.
This reversal comes as SPCX, prior to the IPO, has been cautious in the market, falling around 30% in recent weeks. This suggests that traders still expect SpaceX to trade above the offer price, but not at the explosive premium implied by the book construction. And Friday’s rebound now indicates that the discount is ending.
