Bitcoin is near a decisive moment as it tests two closely aligned on-chain resistance levels, following about 75 days of sideways consolidation from its Feb. 6 local low at $60,000 as bitcoin climbs above $78,000.
The first measure is the true market average, currently at $78,200. This metric, tracked by Checkonchain, reflects the average acquisition price of the active circulating supply, excluding lost or dormant coins. It effectively captures the overall cost base of engaged market players.
The True Market Mean filters out lost, dormant, and economically inactive coins, leaving only the cost basis of participants actually present in the market, making it a more accurate measure of where the true selling pressure resides.
Just above that is the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) at $79,200, according to checkonchain. This cohort, defined as investors holding coins for less than 155 days, tends to be more responsive to price fluctuations. With spot prices lower than their entry average, these participants remain slightly losers. Bitcoin tested STHRP in mid-January around $98,000 and was rejected.
A sustained move above this zone could move both levels towards support, strengthening the bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to recover them could prolong bitcoin’s consolidation phase, with potential downsides.
