Bitcoin has a unique pattern, and it has held steady throughout every major bull cycle since the cryptocurrency began trading near zero 16 years ago. This trend suggests that prices could collapse to at least $48,000.
The model works like this. Draw the Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC started trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to the bull market highs reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017 and November 2021.
The bear markets that followed these highs saw prices collapse well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bullish highs. This happened every time, as the graphs below show.
Four highs, four subsequent bear markets and four breaks below the 61.8% level. No exceptions.
Now comes the current cycle. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 earlier this year. The 61.8% retracement from near zero in early 2010 to this high sits at $48,215. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, which remains well above that level.
The model did not fire. But if that is the case, the charts point to a crash to at least $48,215.
