Reza Bundy, managing director of Atlas Capital and business partner of longtime Bitcoin critic Nouriel Roubini, expects Bitcoin to fall as much as 70% over the next six months before eventually climbing to $500,000 in the coming years.
Speaking to CoinDesk at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris, Reza Bundy, CEO of investment advisory firm Atlas Capital, issued his grim macroeconomic warning that flies in the face of typical industry optimism.
“We think there’s going to be a massive decline in bitcoin over the next six months,” Bundy said, echoing Roubini’s long-held thesis. “He [drawdown] could reach 70%. We think it was between $26,000 and $30,000 that we came in with. If there is a decline in the stock market that is even half of what happened in 2008, Bitcoin will double that debt loss.
Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down nearly 28% this year, while stock markets have rallied sharply on AI hype and continued momentum. The S&P 500 rose 10% and the Nasdaq rose about 19%, outpacing bitcoin over the same period.
‘Dr. Loss’
Bundy said his bearish forecast draws directly on data and analysis developed in collaboration with his chief economist and co-founder, Dr. Nouriel Roubini, known as “Dr. Doom” for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
Roubini is also an anti-bitcoin advocate whose skepticism of bitcoin dates back to the historic bull run of 2017. While bitcoin is up roughly 850% from where it was when Roubini first called it a bubble, Dr. Doom has maintained his bearish stance on the digital asset.
In recent market assessments published on Bloomberg, Roubini reiterated his belief that bitcoin is a “pseudo-asset class” and a pure “speculative asset” lacking fundamental value or real-world utility, setting it apart from true economic hedges like gold.
Bundy somewhat echoed this pessimistic prediction for Bitcoin, at least in the short term. He claimed that bitcoin had failed as a hedge against inflation, as many bulls have said, and was now just a highly volatile risk asset moving in lockstep with tech stocks.
While bitcoin proponents will likely dispute this characterization, pointing to the asset’s long-term returns and fixed supply, Bundy’s criticism echoes comments from billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who recently said he sold most of his bitcoin after it failed to perform as a hedge during periods of geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness.
The original promise of Bitcoin
On the other hand, Bundy is not a lifelong Bitcoin believer.
He still believes in Bitcoin’s “store of value” thesis and is bullish on the long term. Bundy’s long-term forecast is a price range between $150,000 and $500,000, which puts him at odds with his Atlas partner, Roubini.
His optimism dates back to Bitcoin’s initial promise as an alternative currency capable of countering global political and monetary chaos. Bundy argued that Bitcoin’s long-term growth will be driven by increasing government debt, arbitrary central bank money printing, and loss of confidence in traditional currencies (as Satoshi Nakamoto initially envisioned).
And Bundy has reason for his optimism. He plotted the long-term price of bitcoin using four economic paths:
- First, under “controlled expansion” (40% chance), the world experiences steady growth and stable inflation. This keeps the markets higher and pushes bitcoin into a range of $150,000 to $250,000.
- Second, if “fiscal dominance” prevails (25% chance), governments will print money to cover their massive debts, leading to high inflation. This environment favors scarce assets, pushing bitcoin to between $250,000 and $500,000.
- Third, a “global conflict” path (20% probability) involves major security shocks in places like Taiwan or the Middle East. This would trigger a rapid market panic and initial price decline, but ultimately prove Bitcoin’s value as a safe and neutral asset.
- Fourth, a “deflationary recession” (15% probability) means a severe credit freeze that leaves bitcoin weak until central banks intervene to inject liquidity back into the system.
“Techno-dollar” change
In the short term, however, Bundy continues to see a global financial crisis looming on the horizon. He warns that the traditional stock market is a bubble waiting to burst like 1929, and that thesis also informs Atlas Capital’s investment strategy, called the “techno-dollar,” Bundy said.
Instead of tying digital tokens to a single depreciating government currency, he claimed the strategy uses AI-driven allocation models to shift exposure between assets including gold, food, real estate and defense technology. Atlas currently manages this asset allocation strategy through a traditional ETF vehicle with the ticker “USAF” on Nasdaq. The fund currently has about $18 million in net assets and has returned 8.7% since inception, according to TradingView data. Bundy also plans to tokenize it on public blockchains later this month.
When asked why Bitcoin wasn’t part of the fund, even though he is bullish on the long term, Bundy said he was first waiting for the short-term stock market crash he predicted.
“We believe there will be a major correction in the stock market and we do not want to participate in the decline of Bitcoin. Once the correction occurs, we will make our final decision whether to include it or not.”
